Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Keldon Johnson Over 17.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+518↑39%|-332

player points alternate

Keldon Johnson Over 17.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+518↑39%|-332

player points alternate

27.60

Composite Score

-4.0%

Net EV

35.00

Narrative Fit

0.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation for a high-scoring environment is challenged by Keldon Johnson's recent scoring struggles and the competitive nature of the matchup, which may lead to a more balanced team scoring approach rather than heavy reliance on Johnson. Given his average of only 11.8 points in the last five games and the defensive capabilities of the Pistons, the likelihood of him surpassing the 19.5 points threshold is diminished. The Net EV of -0.04 indicates the bet is overpriced, confirming that market conditions reflect the challenges Johnson faces, making this wager a less favorable option.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson has an average of 11.8 points over the last 5 games and an FG% of 48.2%, indicating he has the ability to score efficiently when given more usage.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a high spread of 232.5, suggesting a high-scoring environment that favors offensive productions from players like Johnson.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this game is expected to be competitive (spread of 1.5 points), Johnson will likely play significant minutes, boosting his chances to exceed 19.5 points.
→TREND: Johnson has seen his offensive production fluctuate, and recent increases in his minutes could correlate to an uptick in scoring, especially against teams like the Pistons who allow points.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams on winning streaks (Spurs at 8 and Pistons at 5), the expectation for sustained intensity and offensive output may lead to increased scoring opportunities for Johnson.

Thesis: moderate

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson's current points-per-game average over the last 5 games is just 11.8, significantly below the 19.5 points threshold he needs to exceed.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons rank high defensively, which will challenge Johnson's scoring opportunities, especially given the small spread of only 1.5, meaning a close game with potential for fewer offensive possessions.
→NARRATIVE: The game script likely favors a balanced scoring approach for the Spurs as they look to leverage their overall team play against a competitive Pistons defense, possibly limiting Johnson's shot volume.
→TREND: Johnson has consistently underperformed recently, averaging only 11.8 points while struggling to find a reliable scoring rhythm, indicating a trend away from high-point performances.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak and are likely to distribute scoring across the team rather than relying heavily on one player like Johnson, further diminishing his chances of reaching 19.5 points.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: source1, source2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson has an average of 11.8 points over the last 5 games and an FG% of 48.2%, indicating he has the ability to score efficiently when given more usage.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a high spread of 232.5, suggesting a high-scoring environment that favors offensive productions from players like Johnson.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this game is expected to be competitive (spread of 1.5 points), Johnson will likely play significant minutes, boosting his chances to exceed 19.5 points.
→TREND: Johnson has seen his offensive production fluctuate, and recent increases in his minutes could correlate to an uptick in scoring, especially against teams like the Pistons who allow points.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams on winning streaks (Spurs at 8 and Pistons at 5), the expectation for sustained intensity and offensive output may lead to increased scoring opportunities for Johnson.

Thesis: moderate

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

+550+42.6% EV

Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate💤

+520+42.0% EV

Keldon Johnson Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+2700+41.8% EV

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1100+37.5% EV

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate🚀

+360+25.9% EV