SAL 9000
SAL 9000
Betting research that reasons
Private Beta
HomeHow SAL WorksLegal
SAL 9000SAL 9000 - "I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't let you bet on the Jets."
© 2026 DCDC, LLC. All rights reserved.·Legal Disclaimer
Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Keldon Johnson Over 4.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet
+2700↓1085%|+2974
player threes alternate

Keldon Johnson Over 4.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet
+2700↓1085%|+2974
player threes alternate
64.50
Composite Score
+41.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
90.00
Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

While Keldon Johnson has shown strong recent form, the matchup against the Detroit Pistons suggests a more defensive and competitive game script than anticipated. Factors such as the Pistons' defensive strength and the expected competitive nature of the game—with a close spread—indicate that Johnson may not have ample opportunities to exceed his three-point total. Given the balanced Net EV of 0.42, which does not heavily lean in favor of the bet, it’s wise to pass instead of committing to an uncertain outcome.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

  • →STATS: Keldon Johnson has averaged 1.0 three-pointer made per game over the last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 0.5 threshold.
  • →MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are facing the Detroit Pistons, known for their fast-paced play, which should lead to more shooting opportunities for Johnson.
  • →NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 232.5, a high-scoring affair is expected, creating more chances for Johnson to hit at least one three-pointer.
  • →TREND: Johnson's three-point shooting percentage has surged to 42.0% over the last 5 games, indicating he is in good form and capable of exceeding his average.
  • →SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are currently on an 8-game winning streak, which could boost team confidence and encourage more aggressive play, enhancing Johnson's chances to find open looks beyond the arc.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

  • →STATS: Keldon Johnson has a 3PM average of 1.0 over the last five games, but a large portion of his scoring may not come from three-pointers as his 3P% for the last five games is only 42.0%, suggesting inconsistency from beyond the arc.
  • →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons currently boast one of the stronger defenses in the league, which may limit open shooting opportunities for Keldon Johnson, making it difficult for him to hit even one three-pointer.
  • →NARRATIVE: With a close spread of -1.5 in favor of the Pistons, the game is expected to be competitive, which typically results in fewer three-point attempts as teams look to maximize possession efficiency.
  • →TREND: Throughout his last five games, Keldon Johnson averaged only 0.6 assists per game, which indicates that he is not a primary playmaker and may not get the opportunities to set up shots for himself, especially from three-point range.
  • →SITUATIONAL: Johnson's minutes average of 23.9 suggests that he may not be on the court long enough to take sufficient attempts for exceeding 0.5 made threes, particularly when considering potential rotations in a competitive matchup.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

  • →STATS: Keldon Johnson has averaged 1.0 three-pointer made per game over the last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 0.5 threshold.
  • →MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are facing the Detroit Pistons, known for their fast-paced play, which should lead to more shooting opportunities for Johnson.
  • →NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 232.5, a high-scoring affair is expected, creating more chances for Johnson to hit at least one three-pointer.
  • →TREND: Johnson's three-point shooting percentage has surged to 42.0% over the last 5 games, indicating he is in good form and capable of exceeding his average.
  • →SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are currently on an 8-game winning streak, which could boost team confidence and encourage more aggressive play, enhancing Johnson's chances to find open looks beyond the arc.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2

Related Wagers

Julian Champagnie Over 5.5 threes alternate💤
+2900+59.8% EV
Tobias Harris Over 4.5 threes alternate💤
+2000+44.1% EV
Harrison Barnes Under 0.5 threes alternate💤
+290+43.5% EV
Caris LeVert Over 4.5 threes alternate💤
+2600+42.9% EV
Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate💤
+550+42.6% EV