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De'Aaron Fox Under 1.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+106— stable

player threes

De'Aaron Fox Under 1.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+106— stable

player threes

37.40

Composite Score

+6.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

32.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation for a closely contested game suggests De'Aaron Fox will focus on playmaking rather than shooting threes, which aligns with his recent struggle against San Antonio's strong defense. While he has averaged 2.0 threes made recently, the quantitative score for the bet suggests only a slight edge, making this a less favorable investment given the potential for lower shooting opportunities. The Net EV of 0.06 indicates that the market is fairly priced on this prop, and the high-scoring game narrative does not strongly support the Under on Fox's threes given his shooting trend; therefore, a cautious approach is warranted.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: De'Aaron Fox has a 3P percentage of just 35.1% over the last five games and his 3PM average is 2.0, which indicates he is not consistently exceeding 1.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive rating, which could limit Fox's opportunities for open threes, as teams tend to shoot less effectively against them.
→NARRATIVE: With the game spread being just -1.0 for the Pistons, it suggests a closely contested game where Fox may prioritize playmaking and scoring in the paint over attempting three-pointers.
→TREND: In Fox's recent games against the Spurs, he has struggled to find consistent shooting opportunities beyond the arc, failing to hit 2+ threes in two of the last three matchups.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons have been on a five-game winning streak, which typically leads to higher team cohesion and defensive commitment, potentially limiting Fox's perimeter shot attempts.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: De'Aaron Fox is averaging 2.0 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, which is significantly above the 1.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Pistons' defense allows a 3-point shooting percentage of 35.4%, indicating they are vulnerable to sharpshooters, which favors Fox's scoring opportunity.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total of 227.5, both teams are projected to have a high-scoring affair, generating more shot attempts and opportunities for Fox to hit over 1.5 threes.
→TREND: Fox has hit over 1.5 threes in 3 out of his last 5 games, demonstrating a positive trend in his shooting performance from beyond the arc.
→SITUATIONAL: The game spread indicates a close matchup (Detroit Pistons -1.0), suggesting that Fox will likely play significant minutes (35+), increasing his chances to take and make more shots, including threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: De'Aaron Fox has a 3P percentage of just 35.1% over the last five games and his 3PM average is 2.0, which indicates he is not consistently exceeding 1.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive rating, which could limit Fox's opportunities for open threes, as teams tend to shoot less effectively against them.
→NARRATIVE: With the game spread being just -1.0 for the Pistons, it suggests a closely contested game where Fox may prioritize playmaking and scoring in the paint over attempting three-pointers.
→TREND: In Fox's recent games against the Spurs, he has struggled to find consistent shooting opportunities beyond the arc, failing to hit 2+ threes in two of the last three matchups.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons have been on a five-game winning streak, which typically leads to higher team cohesion and defensive commitment, potentially limiting Fox's perimeter shot attempts.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2