Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Caris LeVert Over 11.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+335↑55%|-415

player points alternate

Caris LeVert Over 11.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+335↑55%|-415

player points alternate

34.20

Composite Score

-1.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

5.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expected high-scoring environment of this matchup could favor LeVert’s scoring opportunities, but his recent performance shows a significant decline, averaging only 6.2 points over the last five games, making it unlikely he exceeds the 11.5 point threshold. The Net EV of -0.01 is trustworthy, indicating that the market has likely priced this bet correctly given both quantitative and qualitative analyses, leading to no advantage on this wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert has a field goal percentage of 46.7%, showing he has the potential to score efficiently when given more shots. While his recent points average is 6.2, his scoring ability should not be underestimated in a favorable environment.
→MATCHUP: The game has a total of 232.5, suggesting a high-scoring matchup that can benefit LeVert's point production, especially against the Detroit Pistons who have a high offensive efficiency.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5), it is likely that this game will remain competitive, keeping the pace high and LeVert on the court longer, which can lead to increased scoring opportunities.
→TREND: LeVert's recent trend shows he has played against the Pistons recently and had a +/- of 22.0, indicating he can make an impactful contribution on the scoreboard in high-pressure scenarios.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, with the Pistons winning 5 in a row and the Spurs winning 8. This momentum can lead to an up-tempo game, increasing the likelihood that LeVert exceeds his scoring threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert has averaged only 6.2 points per game over his last 5 games, which is significantly below the 14.5 point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons, who LeVert has faced multiple times recently, have a strong defense, which could limit his scoring opportunities against a team with a formidable record.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high-scoring total of 232.5, the game might revolve around a few key scorers, which could marginalize LeVert's offensive contributions, leading him to not exceed 14.5 points.
→TREND: LeVert's performance trend has been downward, as reflected in his recent games, where he has struggled to reach double digits, making the over on points unlikely.
→SITUATIONAL: Playing against the San Antonio Spurs, who have been on an 8-game winning streak, could further demoralize LeVert and impact his performance negatively, contributing to another low-scoring game for him.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data not available, data not available

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert has a field goal percentage of 46.7%, showing he has the potential to score efficiently when given more shots. While his recent points average is 6.2, his scoring ability should not be underestimated in a favorable environment.
→MATCHUP: The game has a total of 232.5, suggesting a high-scoring matchup that can benefit LeVert's point production, especially against the Detroit Pistons who have a high offensive efficiency.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5), it is likely that this game will remain competitive, keeping the pace high and LeVert on the court longer, which can lead to increased scoring opportunities.
→TREND: LeVert's recent trend shows he has played against the Pistons recently and had a +/- of 22.0, indicating he can make an impactful contribution on the scoreboard in high-pressure scenarios.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, with the Pistons winning 5 in a row and the Spurs winning 8. This momentum can lead to an up-tempo game, increasing the likelihood that LeVert exceeds his scoring threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

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