Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Caris LeVert Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+265↓200%|+530

player assists alternate

Caris LeVert Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+265↓200%|+530

player assists alternate

59.50

Composite Score

+23.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

82.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Caris LeVert Over 3.5 assists is supported by the expected high-scoring, fast-paced nature of the game against the Pistons, indicated by the game total of 232.5. LeVert has been trending upward in assists and is playing a significant facilitating role, which aligns with the anticipated competitive environment where both teams will likely push for scoring opportunities. The Net EV of 0.23 adds confidence, suggesting that this bet is undervalued in the market, supporting the expectation of LeVert exceeding the assist mark in this matchup.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert has averaged 2.8 assists over his last five games, well above the 1.5 assists threshold, indicating he is currently playing a facilitating role.
→MATCHUP: In this matchup against the Detroit Pistons, the high game total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game, which often leads to increased opportunities for assists.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread set at Detroit Pistons -1.5, the game is expected to be competitive, keeping both teams' starters on the court longer and facilitating LeVert's potential for more assists.
→TREND: Over the last five games, LeVert's assists have been trending upward, and he has consistently exceeded the 1.5 assists mark, which supports his ability to continue this trend in the upcoming game.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are performing strongly with the Pistons on a five-game winning streak and the Spurs on an eight-game winning streak, suggesting a high-energy game that typically results in more assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Although Caris LeVert averages 2.8 assists over his last five games, this is still below the 1.5 assists target, indicating he may struggle to reach that number consistently.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs currently have a strong defense ranked among the top in the league, making it more challenging for LeVert to record high assist numbers against their defensive setup.
→NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be competitive yet close, it's likely that both teams will focus on scoring rather than playmaking, limiting LeVert's opportunities to accumulate assists.
→TREND: In their previous matchup against the Detroit Pistons, LeVert recorded only 2 assists in 23 minutes of gameplay, suggesting that he may not hit the assist mark again in similar conditions.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that the spread is tight at Detroit Pistons -1.5, the likelihood of a blowout is low, meaning LeVert may not have extended playing time to pad his assist stats.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert has averaged 2.8 assists over his last five games, well above the 1.5 assists threshold, indicating he is currently playing a facilitating role.
→MATCHUP: In this matchup against the Detroit Pistons, the high game total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game, which often leads to increased opportunities for assists.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread set at Detroit Pistons -1.5, the game is expected to be competitive, keeping both teams' starters on the court longer and facilitating LeVert's potential for more assists.
→TREND: Over the last five games, LeVert's assists have been trending upward, and he has consistently exceeded the 1.5 assists mark, which supports his ability to continue this trend in the upcoming game.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are performing strongly with the Pistons on a five-game winning streak and the Spurs on an eight-game winning streak, suggesting a high-energy game that typically results in more assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+600+68.6% EV

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