SAL 9000
SAL 9000
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Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham Over 2.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet
+141↓181%|+315
player threes

Cade Cunningham Over 2.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet
+141↓181%|+315
player threes
38.00
Composite Score
+6.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
34.00
Market Divergence

πŸ§ͺ SAL's Synthesis

Given the expected high-scoring nature of the game between the Spurs and Pistons, along with Cade Cunningham's recent form and the favorable matchup against a team that allows a high volume of three-point attempts, betting on his Over 2.5 three-pointers makes sense. While there are concerns regarding Cunningham's consistency and potential for tight defense, the game's narrative suggests plenty of offensive opportunities, granting confidence in the bet. The positive net EV of 0.07 indicates that the market may be slightly mispricing this wager, further supporting the lean towards taking the Over.

🟒 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

  • β†’STATS: Cade Cunningham is averaging 2.8 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, which is above the 2.5 threshold.
  • β†’MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, who allow a high number of three-point attempts, making it a favorable environment for Cunningham to hit his threes.
  • β†’NARRATIVE: With a game total set at 232.5, the expected high-scoring nature of the game suggests that all offensive players, including Cunningham, will have increased opportunities to score from beyond the arc.
  • β†’TREND: Cunningham has been shooting an impressive 39.8% from three-point range in his last five games, indicating he’s in good form to exceed the 2.5 mark.
  • β†’SITUATIONAL: The Pistons, currently on a 5-game winning streak, will likely rely heavily on their stars, including Cunningham, to maintain momentum against a strong Spurs team.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

πŸ”΄ Anti Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

  • β†’STATS: Cade Cunningham's recent performance shows he averages 2.8 three-pointers made per game, but his consistency indicates variations that could lead to games under 2.5.
  • β†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defense, which can limit Cunningham's shooting opportunities and disrupt his rhythm, particularly from beyond the arc.
  • β†’NARRATIVE: With a close spread of 1.5 points and the total set at 232.5, both teams are likely to play tight defense, which could limit higher volume shooters like Cunningham.
  • β†’TREND: In his last five games, while he has made 2.8 threes on average, previous performances against strong defensive teams indicate he has struggled to reach the threshold of 3 threes on multiple occasions.
  • β†’SITUATIONAL: Given the current high-stakes rivalry and playoff positioning, the Pistons may focus on creating balanced scoring rather than relying heavily on three-pointers from Cunningham.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree

🟒 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

  • β†’STATS: Cade Cunningham is averaging 2.8 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, which is above the 2.5 threshold.
  • β†’MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, who allow a high number of three-point attempts, making it a favorable environment for Cunningham to hit his threes.
  • β†’NARRATIVE: With a game total set at 232.5, the expected high-scoring nature of the game suggests that all offensive players, including Cunningham, will have increased opportunities to score from beyond the arc.
  • β†’TREND: Cunningham has been shooting an impressive 39.8% from three-point range in his last five games, indicating he’s in good form to exceed the 2.5 mark.
  • β†’SITUATIONAL: The Pistons, currently on a 5-game winning streak, will likely rely heavily on their stars, including Cunningham, to maintain momentum against a strong Spurs team.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

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