Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Jalen Duren Over 24.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+475↓252%|+340

player points alternate

Jalen Duren Over 24.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+475↓252%|+340

player points alternate

37.70

Composite Score

-10.7%

Net EV

35.00

Narrative Fit

33.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, Jalen Duren is unlikely to exceed the 24.5 points threshold given the Spurs' defensive strength against centers and Duren's recent performance averages below this line. The narrative heavily supports the notion that limited scoring opportunities will impact his ability to hit the bet, aligning with the negative Net EV of -0.11, which indicates that his scoring prop is overpriced by the market. Given these factors, it's prudent to pass on this wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren has averaged 14.2 points over the last 5 games, which shows potential for an increase, especially against a high-scoring opponent like the Spurs with a total set at 232.5.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs' defense has allowed opposing centers to score effectively, presenting Duren with an opportunity to capitalize on offensive mismatches in the paint.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high implied total of the game, we can expect a fast-paced matchup where both teams will trade baskets, increasing Duren's scoring chances significantly.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Spurs, Duren scored over 30 points, indicating that he performs well against this team, and he may replicate that success.
→SITUATIONAL: The game has a small spread of -1.5 in favor of the Pistons, indicating it is expected to be a close game, meaning Duren will likely see increased minutes and usage down the stretch.

Thesis: moderate

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren's season average is only 11.8 points per game, and in the last five games, he averaged just 14.2 points, well below the 34.5 point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive front that will likely contain Duren's scoring opportunities, as they rank among the league's top defenses against centers this season.
→NARRATIVE: In a game with a total of 232.5, the expected scoring might be spread across both teams, reducing individual players' chances to exceed significant scoring benchmarks like 34.5 points.
→TREND: Duren has not scored above 20 points in any game during his last five outings, suggesting he is nowhere near capable of hitting 34.5 points based on current form.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that the Pistons are on a five-game winning streak, it is likely they will rely on more established scorers to handle the offensive load, limiting Duren's shot attempts and overall points.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren has averaged 14.2 points over the last 5 games, which shows potential for an increase, especially against a high-scoring opponent like the Spurs with a total set at 232.5.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs' defense has allowed opposing centers to score effectively, presenting Duren with an opportunity to capitalize on offensive mismatches in the paint.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high implied total of the game, we can expect a fast-paced matchup where both teams will trade baskets, increasing Duren's scoring chances significantly.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Spurs, Duren scored over 30 points, indicating that he performs well against this team, and he may replicate that success.
→SITUATIONAL: The game has a small spread of -1.5 in favor of the Pistons, indicating it is expected to be a close game, meaning Duren will likely see increased minutes and usage down the stretch.

Thesis: moderate

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

+490+62.7% EV

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1100+37.5% EV

Jalen Duren Over 16.5 rebounds alternate💤

+875+35.9% EV

Jalen Duren Over 2.5 steals alternate💤

+820+34.9% EV

Jalen Duren Over 17.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1440+33.5% EV