Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Javonte Green Under 0.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+115— stable

player threes

Javonte Green Under 0.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+115— stable

player threes

36.70

Composite Score

+6.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

30.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the context of the matchup between the Spurs and the Pistons, it is expected that the Pistons will focus on limiting scoring opportunities for shooters like Javonte Green. His recent three-point shooting struggles, combined with San Antonio's strong perimeter defense, suggest that he may not achieve even a half three-pointer in this game. The Net EV of 0.06 indicates that while there's slight value in this wager, the degree of confidence in each side's arguments averages out, making it a lean rather than a strong bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Javonte Green has recently exhibited a 3-point shooting percentage of just 24.0% over the last five games, significantly lower than his overall season average of 32.6%, indicating difficulty in consistently making three-point shots.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their solid perimeter defense and are positioned well in the standings, which suggests that they will focus on limiting Green's opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With the game set to be closely contested given the small spread of 1.5 in favor of the Pistons, it's unlikely that Green will get enough open looks or opportunities to score a three-pointer while playing competitive minutes.
→TREND: In Javonte Green's history against the Detroit Pistons, he has demonstrated inconsistently low production, often failing to hit critical averages that would suggest he is a reliable option for three-point attempts.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons currently have no injuries reported and are on a 5-game winning streak, which could result in them playing more aggressively defensively against Green, limiting his offensive involvement overall.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Javonte Green has averaged 1.0 three-pointer made per game over the last 5 games, indicating a solid ability to exceed the 0.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a fast-paced offense that often results in higher scoring games, which can lead to more three-point attempts for players like Green.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 232.5, both teams are expected to engage in a high-scoring affair, leveraging their three-point shooting capabilities.
→TREND: Green has shown improvement in his offensive game recently, averaging 6.2 points per game over the last 5 games, which includes an uptick in attempts from beyond the arc.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams come into this matchup with strong winning streaks, suggesting that both will push hard to maintain momentum, potentially leading to increased minutes and shooting opportunities for Green.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Javonte Green has recently exhibited a 3-point shooting percentage of just 24.0% over the last five games, significantly lower than his overall season average of 32.6%, indicating difficulty in consistently making three-point shots.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their solid perimeter defense and are positioned well in the standings, which suggests that they will focus on limiting Green's opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With the game set to be closely contested given the small spread of 1.5 in favor of the Pistons, it's unlikely that Green will get enough open looks or opportunities to score a three-pointer while playing competitive minutes.
→TREND: In Javonte Green's history against the Detroit Pistons, he has demonstrated inconsistently low production, often failing to hit critical averages that would suggest he is a reliable option for three-point attempts.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons currently have no injuries reported and are on a 5-game winning streak, which could result in them playing more aggressively defensively against Green, limiting his offensive involvement overall.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

Related Wagers

Daniss Jenkins Under 0.5 threes🎯

+135+13.6% EV

Stephon Castle Under 0.5 threes💤

+155+9.9% EV

Dylan Harper Under 0.5 threes🎯

+120+9.1% EV

Caris LeVert Under 0.5 threes💤

+175+8.9% EV

Cade Cunningham Under 1.5 threes🎯

+142+8.5% EV