Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
Victor Wembanyama Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+114↓193%|+237
player threes
Victor Wembanyama Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+114↓193%|+237
player threes
37.20
Composite Score
+6.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
31.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
While the game script suggests a high-paced matchup with significant scoring opportunities, Wembanyama’s recent average of 1.6 three-pointers made indicates he is near the threshold, and the strong perimeter defense of the Pistons could limit his outside shooting. The balance of evidence from both sides, reflected in the Net EV of 0.06, shows only a slight edge for the Under on his three-pointers, indicating that this bet does not provide enough value in a competitive environment. Thus, opting to pass is the prudent choice as the potential for him to go either way remains high.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Victor Wembanyama's 3PM/game average is 1.6, which is close to the threshold of 1.5 but does not guarantee he will consistently exceed it. Additionally, a typical performance fluctuation could drop him below this mark in the upcoming game.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could limit Wembanyama's three-point opportunities. Facing a formidable team, he may have difficulty finding open looks from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the expected high-paced nature of the game (total points set at 232.5), it's plausible that Wembanyama could prioritize driving to the rim over settling for outside shots, decreasing his three-point attempts.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Wembanyama has only averaged 1.6 three-pointers made; however, reliance on other scoring methods (such as driving or mid-range shots) could see his three-point attempts diminish, especially in a high-stakes game against a top team.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an eight-game winning streak and could rely more on their established players for scoring instead of pushing Wembanyama into higher-risk shooting positions, which may reduce his attempts from three-point range.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Victor Wembanyama has averaged 1.6 three-pointers made per game over the last five games, which is above the proposed threshold of 1.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The high total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game, which typically leads to more shooting opportunities for both teams, increasing the likelihood of Wembanyama exceeding 1.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of the matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, it's likely that both teams will play their starters significant minutes, allowing Wembanyama ample opportunity to hit multiple threes.
- →TREND: Wembanyama's three-point percentage has been impressive at 41.7% in the last five games, indicating his recent proficiency from beyond the arc, which supports hitting over 1.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, indicating that they are playing with confidence and momentum, likely leading to an aggressive offensive approach that favors Wembanyama taking more shots, including from three-point range.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Victor Wembanyama's 3PM/game average is 1.6, which is close to the threshold of 1.5 but does not guarantee he will consistently exceed it. Additionally, a typical performance fluctuation could drop him below this mark in the upcoming game.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could limit Wembanyama's three-point opportunities. Facing a formidable team, he may have difficulty finding open looks from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the expected high-paced nature of the game (total points set at 232.5), it's plausible that Wembanyama could prioritize driving to the rim over settling for outside shots, decreasing his three-point attempts.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Wembanyama has only averaged 1.6 three-pointers made; however, reliance on other scoring methods (such as driving or mid-range shots) could see his three-point attempts diminish, especially in a high-stakes game against a top team.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an eight-game winning streak and could rely more on their established players for scoring instead of pushing Wembanyama into higher-risk shooting positions, which may reduce his attempts from three-point range.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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