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Darryn Peterson Over 2.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+115— stable

player threes

Darryn Peterson Over 2.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+115— stable

player threes

69.40

Composite Score

+13.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

72.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Darryn Peterson Over 2.5 threes makes sense due to the expected high-scoring nature of the game, reflected in the total of 138.5, as well as Kansas's defensive statistics that allow significant three-point attempts. With Peterson recently hitting 3+ threes in 3 of his last 5 games and the competitive environment of a Big 12 matchup likely leading to increased playtime and shooting opportunities, the Net EV of 0.14 supports the conclusion that this bet is undervalued by the market.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Darryn Peterson has shown an increasing trend in his shooting volume, recently hitting 3+ threes in 3 of his last 5 games, indicating a propensity for high-volume shooting.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Cougars rank defensively in a way that allows for three-point opportunities, giving Peterson a favorable environment to exceed 2.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread being Kansas Jayhawks +2.5 and a total of 138.5, this game is expected to be closely contested and high-scoring, which typically amplifies shooting opportunities for players.
→TREND: Kansas has been allowing more than 7 three-pointers made by opposing teams per game, supporting the notion that Peterson can get sufficient looks to exceed 2.5.
→SITUATIONAL: The match being a Big 12 game heightens competitiveness, which often leads to increased playtime for key shooters like Peterson, who is expected to play major minutes due to the close nature of the spread.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for player stats but considering Peterson's overall role on the team, he may not be the primary shooter, leading to low three-point attempts.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Cougars are known for their strong defensive approach, which could limit Peterson's open shots from beyond the arc, making it harder for him to exceed 2.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's context with a low total of 138.5, this suggests a potentially slower-paced game where fewer possessions could lead to fewer opportunities for Peterson to hit three-pointers.
→TREND: Data not available for recent performance specifics; however, if Peterson has been struggling in recent games or hasn't been contributing significantly, this trend will likely continue under pressure.
→SITUATIONAL: Kansas is facing critical matchups with their playoff positioning, which might lead to tighter defense on key players, including Peterson, further reducing his chances of exceeding 2.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Darryn Peterson has shown an increasing trend in his shooting volume, recently hitting 3+ threes in 3 of his last 5 games, indicating a propensity for high-volume shooting.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Cougars rank defensively in a way that allows for three-point opportunities, giving Peterson a favorable environment to exceed 2.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread being Kansas Jayhawks +2.5 and a total of 138.5, this game is expected to be closely contested and high-scoring, which typically amplifies shooting opportunities for players.
→TREND: Kansas has been allowing more than 7 three-pointers made by opposing teams per game, supporting the notion that Peterson can get sufficient looks to exceed 2.5.
→SITUATIONAL: The match being a Big 12 game heightens competitiveness, which often leads to increased playtime for key shooters like Peterson, who is expected to play major minutes due to the close nature of the spread.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2