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Emanuel Sharp Under 2.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+105— stable

player threes

Emanuel Sharp Under 2.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+105— stable

player threes

27.80

Composite Score

+0.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

0.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the balanced narrative and the final Net EV of 0.00, this wager lacks a favorable edge. Both agents present compelling arguments: Sharp's recent struggles against tough perimeter defenses and a competitive game script could limit his three-point attempts, while the Kansas defense struggles against effective shooters suggesting potential opportunities. However, these arguments nearly cancel each other out without providing a clear direction, making this a neutral bet lacking sufficient confidence for action.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Emanuel Sharp has averaged fewer than 2.5 three-pointers made in recent games, reflecting a potential struggle to exceed this threshold, particularly against strong defensive teams.
→MATCHUP: Kansas Jayhawks are known for their defensive prowess, particularly on the perimeter, which could limit Sharp's opportunities to get open looks for threes.
→NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be close with a spread of only +2.5 for Kansas, the game's competitive nature may lead to more focus on creating high-percentage shots rather than relying on three-point attempts.
→TREND: In his last few games, Sharp has not consistently hit the three-point mark, indicating a trend of underperformance that hints he may fall short again in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Cougars are coming off two consecutive losses, which may lead to adjustments in strategy that de-emphasize Sharp's three-point shooting in favor of more effective plays.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Emanuel Sharp has been effective from beyond the arc, averaging 3.0 three-pointers made per game this season, which indicates he is capable of exceeding 2.5 threes in a single game.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks have struggled defensively against strong shooting teams, allowing opponents to shoot a higher percentage from three-point range, providing Sharp with good opportunities to capitalize.
→NARRATIVE: The expected game pace is high given the total of 138.5, which creates more possessions and scoring opportunities for players like Sharp, increasing the likelihood he will hit more three-pointers.
→TREND: In recent games, Sharp has been trending upward, showcasing a stronger offensive performance, particularly in games with close spreads, indicating he thrives in competitive matchups.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Cougars are facing a crucial game within the Big 12, and with the close spread of +2.5 against Kansas, Sharp will likely play heavy minutes (35-40+) to help secure the victory, boosting his chances of exceeding 2.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Emanuel Sharp has averaged fewer than 2.5 three-pointers made in recent games, reflecting a potential struggle to exceed this threshold, particularly against strong defensive teams.
→MATCHUP: Kansas Jayhawks are known for their defensive prowess, particularly on the perimeter, which could limit Sharp's opportunities to get open looks for threes.
→NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be close with a spread of only +2.5 for Kansas, the game's competitive nature may lead to more focus on creating high-percentage shots rather than relying on three-point attempts.
→TREND: In his last few games, Sharp has not consistently hit the three-point mark, indicating a trend of underperformance that hints he may fall short again in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Cougars are coming off two consecutive losses, which may lead to adjustments in strategy that de-emphasize Sharp's three-point shooting in favor of more effective plays.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2