Back to Houston Cougars @ Kansas Jayhawks
Darryn Peterson Over 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+165— stable
player assists
Darryn Peterson Over 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+165— stable
player assists
43.60
Composite Score
+4.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
30.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game script suggests a competitive environment with the Kansas Jayhawks motivated to break a losing streak, which should lead to increased offensive pressure and longer minutes for key players like Darryn Peterson. Despite the resistance from a tough Houston Cougars defense that could limit assists, Peterson's recent trend of averaging 2 assists per game and the high pace of play from Kansas supports a reasonable expectation that he can exceed the 1.5 assists threshold. The Net EV score of 0.05 indicates a slight edge in favor of this bet being underpriced, making it a viable option worth considering.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 55%
Evidence
- →STATS: Darryn Peterson has recorded at least 2 assists in 60% of his games this season, suggesting he has the tendency to surpass the 1.5 assists threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks are averaging a high pace of play this season, which increases the likelihood of offensive possessions and assists being distributed among players like Peterson.
- →NARRATIVE: The tightly contested spread of Kansas Jayhawks +2.5 implies a closely fought game, leading to increased minutes for Peterson and a higher chance of accumulating assists as a result.
- →TREND: In his last 3 games, Peterson's assist numbers have seen a positive uptick, with him averaging 2 assists per game, indicating he is finding his groove in setting up teammates.
- →SITUATIONAL: Kansas is currently on a losing streak (L1), creating a sense of urgency within the team, prompting Peterson to take on a more significant role in playmaking to help secure a win.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.sports-reference.com/, https://www.espn.com/
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 62%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for Darryn Peterson's recent assists average, but generally, players on average produce below 1.5 assists in closely contested games.
- →MATCHUP: Kansas Jayhawks are facing a tough Houston Cougars defense, which ranks high in limiting assists from opposing guards, making it harder for Peterson to distribute effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be competitive (small spread of +2.5), the flow of the game could lead to more scoring opportunities rather than assist plays, reducing Peterson's ability to exceed 1.5 assists.
- →TREND: Kansas Jayhawks' recent performance has shown inconsistency, and in the last few games, Peterson has struggled to find his passing rhythm, reflecting a likely underperformance in assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: Kansas Jayhawks are coming off a loss, which often leads to stronger defensive focus leading into a bounce-back game. This increase in defensive attention can hinder Peterson's ability to find open teammates for assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 55%
Evidence
- →STATS: Darryn Peterson has recorded at least 2 assists in 60% of his games this season, suggesting he has the tendency to surpass the 1.5 assists threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks are averaging a high pace of play this season, which increases the likelihood of offensive possessions and assists being distributed among players like Peterson.
- →NARRATIVE: The tightly contested spread of Kansas Jayhawks +2.5 implies a closely fought game, leading to increased minutes for Peterson and a higher chance of accumulating assists as a result.
- →TREND: In his last 3 games, Peterson's assist numbers have seen a positive uptick, with him averaging 2 assists per game, indicating he is finding his groove in setting up teammates.
- →SITUATIONAL: Kansas is currently on a losing streak (L1), creating a sense of urgency within the team, prompting Peterson to take on a more significant role in playmaking to help secure a win.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.sports-reference.com/, https://www.espn.com/
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