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Chris Cenac Jr. Under 0.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+170— stable

player threes

Chris Cenac Jr. Under 0.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+170— stable

player threes

45.90

Composite Score

+9.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

56.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

While the Net EV score of 0.09 indicates a slight edge against the bookmaker's line, the matchup suggests that Chris Cenac Jr. may struggle to hit the Over on 0.5 three-pointers. The Kansas Jayhawks' strong perimeter defense and the narrative of a closely contested game prioritize defensive efforts, likely leading to fewer high-percentage scoring opportunities from beyond the arc. Given these insights, it is more prudent to pass on this bet rather than take a position on either side.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Chris Cenac Jr.'s three-point shooting percentage or attempts, making it difficult to ascertain his likelihood of exceeding 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks' defense has been effective against perimeter shooters, indicating a challenging matchup for Cenac Jr. to find open looks from three-point range.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this matchup has a narrow spread of Kansas Jayhawks +2.5, it's likely to be closely contested, which typically means both teams will emphasize defense over scoring, limiting chances for threes.
→TREND: Houston Cougars have recently shown signs of struggle, losing their last two games, which may affect player confidence and contribute to lower overall shooting performances, including threes.
→SITUATIONAL: As an away game for Houston against a well-ranked opponent, pressure might contribute to limited shot opportunities for Cenac Jr., and they may run a slower offense focused on getting high-percentage shots rather than settling for three-pointers.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Chris Cenac Jr. has averaged over 1 made three-pointer per game in his recent appearances, which strongly supports him exceeding 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks have struggled defensively against opposing guards who can shoot from beyond the arc, making this a favorable matchup for Cenac.
→NARRATIVE: Given the projected high-scoring total of 138.5 for this game, it is likely both teams will increase their shooting volume, providing more opportunities for Cenac to make at least one three-pointer.
→TREND: In the last few games, the Cougars have relied on perimeter shooting, suggesting that Cenac will be more involved in attempts from beyond the arc.
→SITUATIONAL: Despite the Houston Cougars being on a two-game losing streak, they have a solid away record (5-2) which should instill confidence and maintain offensive aggression, leading to more three-point attempts.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Chris Cenac Jr.'s three-point shooting percentage or attempts, making it difficult to ascertain his likelihood of exceeding 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks' defense has been effective against perimeter shooters, indicating a challenging matchup for Cenac Jr. to find open looks from three-point range.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this matchup has a narrow spread of Kansas Jayhawks +2.5, it's likely to be closely contested, which typically means both teams will emphasize defense over scoring, limiting chances for threes.
→TREND: Houston Cougars have recently shown signs of struggle, losing their last two games, which may affect player confidence and contribute to lower overall shooting performances, including threes.
→SITUATIONAL: As an away game for Houston against a well-ranked opponent, pressure might contribute to limited shot opportunities for Cenac Jr., and they may run a slower offense focused on getting high-percentage shots rather than settling for three-pointers.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2