Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
-200↑233%|-350
player threes
Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
-200↑233%|-350
player threes
38.30
Composite Score
+12.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
54.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, we expect a competitive game where Oklahoma City Thunder may struggle to generate a high volume of three-point opportunities for Luguentz Dort, especially given the strong defensive presence of the Denver Nuggets. With Dort's recent shooting slump (31.8% from three over the last 5 games) and limited average minutes (25.0 per game), it's reasonable to anticipate that he won't reach 1.5 made threes, particularly against a top defensive team that puts pressure on shooters. The Net EV of 0.13 indicates a slight edge, reflecting that the market might not adequately account for these factors, making this a solid bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Luguentz Dort's three-point shooting percentage over the last 5 games is only 31.8%, significantly lower than the threshold of exceeding 1.5 made threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets are ranked as a top defensive team, putting pressure on shooters like Dort, making it more challenging for him to convert three-point attempts.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be a competitive matchup given the spread of Thunder -8.0, Dort might not get the volume of shots required to hit the over on threes.
- →TREND: In the last game against the Nuggets, Dort managed only 2 three-point attempts and made none, highlighting a tendency for low output against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: Dort is averaging just 25.0 minutes per game in the last 5, which limits his opportunities to take and make three-point shots, especially in a potentially lopsided game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Luguentz Dort has a 3-point shooting percentage of 31.8% over the last 5 games, which, while not stellar, reflects he has been capable of hitting multiple threes in games where he plays substantially.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets allow their opponents to shoot 37.5% from beyond the arc, indicating that Dort will likely get open looks against their defense, increasing his chances of exceeding 1.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: With Oklahoma City Thunder favored by 8 points, it suggests a high-scoring game which typically leads to increased shooting opportunities, and as a key player, Dort is likely to be involved in the scoring action.
- →TREND: In the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder earlier this season, Dort had a strong performance offensively, which included a notable shooting performance that signifies he can score effectively against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The high game total of 233.5 indicates a fast-paced matchup, which can lead to more possessions and opportunities for Dort to make threes, especially if he receives increased minutes in a competitive game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Luguentz Dort's three-point shooting percentage over the last 5 games is only 31.8%, significantly lower than the threshold of exceeding 1.5 made threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets are ranked as a top defensive team, putting pressure on shooters like Dort, making it more challenging for him to convert three-point attempts.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be a competitive matchup given the spread of Thunder -8.0, Dort might not get the volume of shots required to hit the over on threes.
- →TREND: In the last game against the Nuggets, Dort managed only 2 three-point attempts and made none, highlighting a tendency for low output against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: Dort is averaging just 25.0 minutes per game in the last 5, which limits his opportunities to take and make three-point shots, especially in a potentially lopsided game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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