Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Tim Hardaway Jr Over 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
-105— stable
player threes
Tim Hardaway Jr Over 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
-105— stable
player threes
61.80
Composite Score
+18.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
70.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
We can expect a high-scoring game given the total set at 233.5, which should create ample opportunities for Tim Hardaway Jr. to hit three-pointers. The evidence supports that he is playing heavy minutes and the Nuggets' weak perimeter defense aligns well with his shooting ability. The Net EV score of 0.19 suggests the bet is undervalued by the bookmaker, making this a favorable wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tim Hardaway Jr. has averaged 2.2 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, showing he is already close to exceeding the 2.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets have allowed a high three-point shooting percentage this season, which favors Hardaway's shooting ability, especially considering his 36.8% season average from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 233.5, indicating a high-scoring contest, which typically leads to more opportunities for all players to score, including Hardaway hitting more threes.
- →TREND: In the last game against the Denver Nuggets, Hardaway played 40 minutes and contributed significantly, hinting at potential for high usage in a similar matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Thunder are favored by 8.5 points, suggesting they are likely to play a close game; this will keep starters on the floor longer, allowing Hardaway more chances to hit additional threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tim Hardaway Jr. has averaged only 2.2 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, which is below the threshold of 2.5 threes needed to exceed this outcome.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets have a strong perimeter defense, which could limit Hardaway's shot opportunities. They are known to contest three-point shots effectively, making it harder for shooters to find clean looks.
- →NARRATIVE: With a large spread of Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5, if the game turns into a blowout, Hardaway's minutes may decrease in the second half, reducing his chances to make 3s.
- →TREND: Hardaway's shooting consistency has fluctuated—his last game saw him attempt only 6 three-point shots, indicating an underwhelming performance that could carry over into this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Oklahoma City Thunder recently experienced a loss and may come into this game with heightened defensive intensity, negatively impacting Hardaway's ability to score from beyond the arc.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tim Hardaway Jr. has averaged 2.2 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, showing he is already close to exceeding the 2.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets have allowed a high three-point shooting percentage this season, which favors Hardaway's shooting ability, especially considering his 36.8% season average from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 233.5, indicating a high-scoring contest, which typically leads to more opportunities for all players to score, including Hardaway hitting more threes.
- →TREND: In the last game against the Denver Nuggets, Hardaway played 40 minutes and contributed significantly, hinting at potential for high usage in a similar matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Thunder are favored by 8.5 points, suggesting they are likely to play a close game; this will keep starters on the floor longer, allowing Hardaway more chances to hit additional threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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