Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+136↓17%|+20
player threes
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+136↓17%|+20
player threes
38.10
Composite Score
+12.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
53.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, we expect a high-scoring game given the 233.5 total, which aligns with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's strong recent performance shooting 54.5% from beyond the arc. The matchup against the Denver Nuggets, who allow a significant number of three-point attempts, adds further confidence that Gilgeous-Alexander will have the opportunities to exceed 1.5 made threes. The positive Net EV of 0.13 indicates that the market is undervaluing his chance to hit this number considering the current game context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been shooting at an impressive 54.5% from three-point range over his last five games, significantly above the league average, which indicates he is capable of exceeding 1.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder are facing the Denver Nuggets, a team that allows approximately 12.3 three-pointers per game, providing a favorable environment for shooters like Gilgeous-Alexander to capitalize on open looks.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high projected total of 233.5 for the game, this indicates a fast-paced matchup where both teams are scoring heavily, which can lead to more three-point attempts for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 30.8 points, with a strong overall offensive presence that typically results in higher than usual three-point attempts as defensive focus increases on his scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently the top team in the Western Conference with a record of 45-15, suggesting they will be motivated to perform at home to keep their position, likely resulting in increased minutes and opportunities for their star player.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's recent three-point shooting percentage is 54.5%, which sounds great, but averages only 1.4 threes made per game over the last five games, indicating he is not consistently exceeding 1.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets are a strong defensive team, particularly against perimeter shooters. They are known for their ability to contest shots, which could limit his opportunities to make three-pointers.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Oklahoma City Thunder -8.0, this game could likely result in a blowout, leading to Shai potentially sitting out in the final minutes, which harms his chances of hitting the over on threes.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Shai has only exceeded 1.5 threes in two of them. This trend shows that his ability to hit more than 1.5 threes is not a reliable performance indicator at this moment.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Thunder's previous game was a loss, which might place additional pressure on Shai to perform efficiently. However, if he is forced to focus on driving to the basket for higher percentage shots, his three-point attempts and makes may decline.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been shooting at an impressive 54.5% from three-point range over his last five games, significantly above the league average, which indicates he is capable of exceeding 1.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder are facing the Denver Nuggets, a team that allows approximately 12.3 three-pointers per game, providing a favorable environment for shooters like Gilgeous-Alexander to capitalize on open looks.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high projected total of 233.5 for the game, this indicates a fast-paced matchup where both teams are scoring heavily, which can lead to more three-point attempts for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 30.8 points, with a strong overall offensive presence that typically results in higher than usual three-point attempts as defensive focus increases on his scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently the top team in the Western Conference with a record of 45-15, suggesting they will be motivated to perform at home to keep their position, likely resulting in increased minutes and opportunities for their star player.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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