Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+142↓15%|+18
player threes
Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+142↓15%|+18
player threes
37.10
Composite Score
+11.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
50.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This wager on Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 threes fits well with the expected game narrative. The game is projected to be competitive, yet Dort has shown a recent decline in shooting efficiency, struggling against a strong Denver defense. His limited minutes and low volume of shots against the Nuggets suggest that he is unlikely to meet the threshold of 1.5 made threes, making the positive Net EV score of 0.12 indicate that the market is underpricing this bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Luguentz Dort's three-point shooting percentage over the last 5 games is only 31.8%, significantly lower than the threshold of exceeding 1.5 made threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets are ranked as a top defensive team, putting pressure on shooters like Dort, making it more challenging for him to convert three-point attempts.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be a competitive matchup given the spread of Thunder -8.0, Dort might not get the volume of shots required to hit the over on threes.
- →TREND: In the last game against the Nuggets, Dort managed only 2 three-point attempts and made none, highlighting a tendency for low output against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: Dort is averaging just 25.0 minutes per game in the last 5, which limits his opportunities to take and make three-point shots, especially in a potentially lopsided game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Luguentz Dort has a 3-point shooting percentage of 31.8% over the last 5 games, which, while not stellar, reflects he has been capable of hitting multiple threes in games where he plays substantially.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets allow their opponents to shoot 37.5% from beyond the arc, indicating that Dort will likely get open looks against their defense, increasing his chances of exceeding 1.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: With Oklahoma City Thunder favored by 8 points, it suggests a high-scoring game which typically leads to increased shooting opportunities, and as a key player, Dort is likely to be involved in the scoring action.
- →TREND: In the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder earlier this season, Dort had a strong performance offensively, which included a notable shooting performance that signifies he can score effectively against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The high game total of 233.5 indicates a fast-paced matchup, which can lead to more possessions and opportunities for Dort to make threes, especially if he receives increased minutes in a competitive game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Luguentz Dort's three-point shooting percentage over the last 5 games is only 31.8%, significantly lower than the threshold of exceeding 1.5 made threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets are ranked as a top defensive team, putting pressure on shooters like Dort, making it more challenging for him to convert three-point attempts.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be a competitive matchup given the spread of Thunder -8.0, Dort might not get the volume of shots required to hit the over on threes.
- →TREND: In the last game against the Nuggets, Dort managed only 2 three-point attempts and made none, highlighting a tendency for low output against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: Dort is averaging just 25.0 minutes per game in the last 5, which limits his opportunities to take and make three-point shots, especially in a potentially lopsided game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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