Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Brandon Williams Under 23.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-112— stable
player points assists
Brandon Williams Under 23.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-112— stable
player points assists
33.00
Composite Score
+9.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
37.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The narrative indicates a competitive game, which could lead to fewer overall possessions and scoring opportunities, highlighting the potential for Brandon Williams to remain under 23.5 points and assists. Additionally, his recent performance trends show he is averaging only 14 combined points and assists in his last five games, reinforcing the argument against exceeding the threshold. Given the Net EV of 0.10, while it leans positive, the balance of factors implies that betting on this line carries more risk than reward.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brandon Williams has averaged only 9.4 points and 4.6 assists over his last five games, totaling 14 points and assists, which is significantly under the 23.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies' defensive strategies have been effective against guards, and the absence of significant offensive contributors on the Grizzlies means their defense is focused, potentially limiting Williams' opportunities to rack up numbers.
- →NARRATIVE: The likely game script suggests a competitive match with both teams struggling, which could lead to lower overall possessions and, consequently, fewer scoring opportunities for all players, including Williams.
- →TREND: Williams’ performance has shown erratic tendencies, and with a recent average of just 14 total points and assists in the last five games, it indicates he is trending downward rather than towards exceeding the threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: With Brandon Williams averaging only 20 minutes per game recently, he may not see enough court time in a game against a Dallas Mavericks team that may stretch defenses, meaning fewer chances for assists or scoring.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brandon Williams is averaging 4.6 assists in his last 5 games, which is significantly above the average required assists to exceed the threshold of 23.5 points and assists combined.
- →MATCHUP: In his last game against the Dallas Mavericks, he logged 26 minutes and contributed effectively, showing he can perform well against this opponent.
- →NARRATIVE: The game has a high total of 238.5, which suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring game that can increase shot opportunities for Williams, leading to more points and assists.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, his minutes have increased to 20.0 per game, providing him with more opportunities to contribute statistically in both points and assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that both teams are struggling and show a need to compete fiercely for a win, it is likely that Williams will play extended minutes in a close game scenario, allowing him to approach or exceed the threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brandon Williams has averaged only 9.4 points and 4.6 assists over his last five games, totaling 14 points and assists, which is significantly under the 23.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies' defensive strategies have been effective against guards, and the absence of significant offensive contributors on the Grizzlies means their defense is focused, potentially limiting Williams' opportunities to rack up numbers.
- →NARRATIVE: The likely game script suggests a competitive match with both teams struggling, which could lead to lower overall possessions and, consequently, fewer scoring opportunities for all players, including Williams.
- →TREND: Williams’ performance has shown erratic tendencies, and with a recent average of just 14 total points and assists in the last five games, it indicates he is trending downward rather than towards exceeding the threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: With Brandon Williams averaging only 20 minutes per game recently, he may not see enough court time in a game against a Dallas Mavericks team that may stretch defenses, meaning fewer chances for assists or scoring.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
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