Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Daniel Gafford Under 10.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-105— stable
player points assists
Daniel Gafford Under 10.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-105— stable
player points assists
35.10
Composite Score
+11.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
44.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The bet on Daniel Gafford Under 10.5 points and assists is a pass because while the quantitative analysis suggests a slight edge, Gafford's recent trend indicates he's been averaging over 10 points alone, which conflicts with the under prediction. The matchup against the Mavericks also suggests potential scoring opportunities, especially given their average defensive rating. Despite the positive Net EV of 0.11, the fundamental evidence points towards Gafford potentially exceeding this combined total, making it uncertain.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford's assists average this season is only 1.4 per game, and over the last 5 games, he has averaged only 0.4 assists per game, indicating a significant underperformance in this category.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have a solid defensive rating, which may limit Gafford's opportunities for assists, especially as they look to tighten up on defense with each game.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the total points set at 238.5 for this game, while this suggests a high-scoring potential, it often leads to players focusing on scoring and rebounding rather than playmaking, further hurting Gafford's chance to exceed 10.5 points and assists combined.
- →TREND: In his last 5 games, Gafford has failed to exceed 10 combined points and assists in three of those games, making it indicative of a declining performance trend heading into this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford is averaging only 18.8 minutes per game over the last 5 matches, which is significantly lower than what would typically be needed for him to accumulate enough points and assists to exceed the 10.5 threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford has averaged 10.2 points in his last five games and has a solid shooting percentage of 77.8%, indicating he can convert his scoring opportunities effectively.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have a defensive rating of 113.5, which ranks them as average defensively, allowing Gafford opportunities to exploit their defense in the interior.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 238.5 for this game, a high-scoring affair is expected, which increases the likelihood of Gafford accumulating points.
- →TREND: Despite averaging only 0.4 assists over the last five games, Gafford's scoring has been consistent and he has shown potential for increase in opportunities, especially in offensive sets against the Mavericks.
- →SITUATIONAL: Both teams are underperforming this season, creating a more open game dynamic where Gafford might receive increased usage and minutes, allowing him to exceed the 10.5 points threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data not available, data not available
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford's assists average this season is only 1.4 per game, and over the last 5 games, he has averaged only 0.4 assists per game, indicating a significant underperformance in this category.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have a solid defensive rating, which may limit Gafford's opportunities for assists, especially as they look to tighten up on defense with each game.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the total points set at 238.5 for this game, while this suggests a high-scoring potential, it often leads to players focusing on scoring and rebounding rather than playmaking, further hurting Gafford's chance to exceed 10.5 points and assists combined.
- →TREND: In his last 5 games, Gafford has failed to exceed 10 combined points and assists in three of those games, making it indicative of a declining performance trend heading into this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford is averaging only 18.8 minutes per game over the last 5 matches, which is significantly lower than what would typically be needed for him to accumulate enough points and assists to exceed the 10.5 threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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