Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Max Christie Under 18.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-123— stable
player points assists
Max Christie Under 18.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-123— stable
player points assists
29.90
Composite Score
+7.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
28.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, I expect a competitive game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks, but given Max Christie's recent struggles and the Grizzlies' strong defensive capabilities against perimeter players, I see him falling short of the 18.5 points and assists line. With Christie averaging only 8.0 points and 0.8 assists in his last five games, it's likely he won't contribute significantly enough to hit the threshold. The Net EV of 0.07 reinforces that the market undervalues this bet, hence betting on Christie to go under makes sense given the current game narrative.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Max Christie has been averaging only 8.0 points and 0.8 assists in his last 5 games, which totals just 8.8 on points and assists, making it highly unlikely he will exceed 18.5 combined.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have shown strong defensive capabilities, particularly against perimeter players, which can limit Christie's scoring and assist opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's total of 238.5, if the pace becomes too quick, Christie may not be the primary scoring or playmaking option, risking lower overall stats as teammates may dominate the ball.
- →TREND: Christie has recently been underperforming, with last game stats of only 8 points and 1 assist, indicating a troubling trend and lack of impact in the offensive flow.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the game being a medium spread of 4 points, it's likely to remain competitive, potentially reducing Christie's minutes as starters might play fewer due to a close score, impacting his opportunities for points and assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Max Christie averaged 9.6 points and 1.9 assists per game this season, which shows he can contribute significantly in scoring and playmaking.
- →MATCHUP: Facing a struggling Memphis Grizzlies team that is on a three-game losing streak suggests an opportunity for Christie to excel against a defense that may be lacking in intensity.
- →NARRATIVE: The high game total of 238.5 indicates a potential for a fast-paced match, which would likely increase overall scoring opportunities for Christie to surpass the combined 18.5 points and assists.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Christie has shown a scoring improvement with an average of 8.0 points per game, which, when paired with an increase in minutes could push his total closer to the threshold during higher-stakes moments in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Dallas Mavericks are currently 4-point favorites, indicating a competitive game that may require Christie to play significant minutes and perform at a higher level to help secure a win.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Max Christie has been averaging only 8.0 points and 0.8 assists in his last 5 games, which totals just 8.8 on points and assists, making it highly unlikely he will exceed 18.5 combined.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have shown strong defensive capabilities, particularly against perimeter players, which can limit Christie's scoring and assist opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's total of 238.5, if the pace becomes too quick, Christie may not be the primary scoring or playmaking option, risking lower overall stats as teammates may dominate the ball.
- →TREND: Christie has recently been underperforming, with last game stats of only 8 points and 1 assist, indicating a troubling trend and lack of impact in the offensive flow.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the game being a medium spread of 4 points, it's likely to remain competitive, potentially reducing Christie's minutes as starters might play fewer due to a close score, impacting his opportunities for points and assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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