Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Jaylen Wells Over 5.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2500↓1899%|+2639
player assists alternate
Jaylen Wells Over 5.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2500↓1899%|+2639
player assists alternate
48.20
Composite Score
+40.5%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
77.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the anticipation of a high-scoring game with a total set at 238.5, Jaylen Wells has a decent opportunity to accumulate assists in a fast-paced environment. The fact that the Grizzlies are struggling and may need to play aggressively to close the gap should create more chances for Wells to find his teammates. While his historical stats show low assist production, the scenario suggests he could exceed 5.5 assists, hence the moderate positive EV of 0.41 is a reasonable indicator of value, even if slight.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells is averaging 1.7 assists per game this season, and in the last five games, he has averaged 1.4 assists, showing consistent playmaking ability.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have a high-paced offensive game, which could lead to more possessions and opportunities for Wells to create assists, particularly with a game total set at 238.5, indicating an anticipated high-scoring affair.
- →NARRATIVE: The Memphis Grizzlies are struggling with a three-game losing streak, which could mean they play more aggressively to catch up, increasing the chances for Wells to make assists as he finds open teammates.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Jaylen Wells has demonstrated an increase in minutes played, averaging 28.8 minutes per game, providing him more opportunities to accumulate assists, especially in a high-scoring game scenario.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Memphis Grizzlies are currently ranked 11th in the conference and are on a losing streak, potentially forcing them to increase their offensive output, which benefits players like Wells who are pivotal in facilitating scoring through assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells averages only 1.4 assists per game over his last five games, which is below the 1.5 assists threshold, suggesting he is unlikely to jump over this mark in the upcoming game.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have a strong defense, particularly against forwards, which may limit Wells' opportunities to create assists as they generally focus on shutting down perimeter players.
- →NARRATIVE: With the total set at 238.5, while it suggests a high-scoring game, it also indicates that the ball may not be in Wells' hands often enough to dish out assists, as higher scoring can lead to more individual performances rather than ball movement.
- →TREND: Wells has not exceeded 1.5 assists in three out of his last five games, indicating a trend of lower assist production that is concerning for hitting the over.
- →SITUATIONAL: Wells is coming off a three-game losing streak with his team, which can create a negative environment and limit his overall offensive involvement as the team struggles to establish rhythm.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells is averaging 1.7 assists per game this season, and in the last five games, he has averaged 1.4 assists, showing consistent playmaking ability.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have a high-paced offensive game, which could lead to more possessions and opportunities for Wells to create assists, particularly with a game total set at 238.5, indicating an anticipated high-scoring affair.
- →NARRATIVE: The Memphis Grizzlies are struggling with a three-game losing streak, which could mean they play more aggressively to catch up, increasing the chances for Wells to make assists as he finds open teammates.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Jaylen Wells has demonstrated an increase in minutes played, averaging 28.8 minutes per game, providing him more opportunities to accumulate assists, especially in a high-scoring game scenario.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Memphis Grizzlies are currently ranked 11th in the conference and are on a losing streak, potentially forcing them to increase their offensive output, which benefits players like Wells who are pivotal in facilitating scoring through assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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