Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Jaylen Wells Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+520↑83%|-2480
player threes alternate
Jaylen Wells Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+520↑83%|-2480
player threes alternate
47.50
Composite Score
+51.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
75.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, expect a high-scoring shootout given the game's total of 238.5, creating ample opportunities for Jaylen Wells to make three-pointers. His recent shooting form, hitting 65.3% from beyond the arc, coupled with the Memphis Grizzlies' struggles against three-point shooters, supports the bet on him exceeding 3.5 made threes. The Net EV of 0.52 indicates that the bet is underappreciated in the market, positioning it as a strong opportunity given the favorable game conditions.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells has been exceptional in his last 5 games, shooting 65.3% from three-point range, which suggests a strong potential for high three-point makes based on recent form.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have struggled defensively against three-point shooters, providing Wells with opportunities to capitalize on open looks during the game.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5 for this game, both teams are expected to engage in a fast-paced shootout, leading to more shot opportunities for Wells, especially beyond the arc.
- →TREND: Wells' current production has him averaging 17.4 points over the last five games, indicating an increase in offensive responsibility which bodes well for his ability to hit multiple threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Dallas Mavericks are on a one-game losing streak and in desperate need of a win, which could increase the pace and urgency of the game, drawing Wells into more shooting scenarios including three-point attempts.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells has made an average of 5.4 FG per game and a 3P percentage of 65.3% over his last 5 games, but this does not equate to over 5.5 three-pointers made given he typically scores 10.4 points a game, indicating limited volume.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could significantly limit Wells' three-point shooting opportunities during this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 238.5, indicating a high-scoring game; however, high totals can mean more contested shots and less focus on high-efficiency three-point attempts, thus working against Wells exceeding 5.5 threes.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games, Wells has not consistently reached a high enough volume for three-point attempts; averaging closer to 3-4 attempts per game implies he is unlikely to exceed 5.5 makes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both the Grizzlies and Mavericks struggling in recent games, there could be a tendency to prioritize other scoring options, decreasing Wells' chances to keep shooting threes at a high rate.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells has been exceptional in his last 5 games, shooting 65.3% from three-point range, which suggests a strong potential for high three-point makes based on recent form.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have struggled defensively against three-point shooters, providing Wells with opportunities to capitalize on open looks during the game.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5 for this game, both teams are expected to engage in a fast-paced shootout, leading to more shot opportunities for Wells, especially beyond the arc.
- →TREND: Wells' current production has him averaging 17.4 points over the last five games, indicating an increase in offensive responsibility which bodes well for his ability to hit multiple threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Dallas Mavericks are on a one-game losing streak and in desperate need of a win, which could increase the pace and urgency of the game, drawing Wells into more shooting scenarios including three-point attempts.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
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