Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Jaylen Wells Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+475↓388%|+640
player threes alternate
Jaylen Wells Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+475↓388%|+640
player threes alternate
47.50
Composite Score
+50.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
75.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, we expect a high-scoring game driven by the fast-paced play style of both teams, with a total set at 238.5. Jaylen Wells' recent form shows a strong shooting percentage from beyond the arc, and the Grizzlies' struggles against three-point shooters create significant opportunities for him to exceed 3.5 made threes. Given the positive Net EV of 0.51, the evidence indicates that this wager is underpriced by the market, offering a good opportunity for a profitable bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells has been exceptional in his last 5 games, shooting 65.3% from three-point range, which suggests a strong potential for high three-point makes based on recent form.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have struggled defensively against three-point shooters, providing Wells with opportunities to capitalize on open looks during the game.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5 for this game, both teams are expected to engage in a fast-paced shootout, leading to more shot opportunities for Wells, especially beyond the arc.
- →TREND: Wells' current production has him averaging 17.4 points over the last five games, indicating an increase in offensive responsibility which bodes well for his ability to hit multiple threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Dallas Mavericks are on a one-game losing streak and in desperate need of a win, which could increase the pace and urgency of the game, drawing Wells into more shooting scenarios including three-point attempts.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells has made an average of 5.4 FG per game and a 3P percentage of 65.3% over his last 5 games, but this does not equate to over 5.5 three-pointers made given he typically scores 10.4 points a game, indicating limited volume.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could significantly limit Wells' three-point shooting opportunities during this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 238.5, indicating a high-scoring game; however, high totals can mean more contested shots and less focus on high-efficiency three-point attempts, thus working against Wells exceeding 5.5 threes.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games, Wells has not consistently reached a high enough volume for three-point attempts; averaging closer to 3-4 attempts per game implies he is unlikely to exceed 5.5 makes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both the Grizzlies and Mavericks struggling in recent games, there could be a tendency to prioritize other scoring options, decreasing Wells' chances to keep shooting threes at a high rate.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells has been exceptional in his last 5 games, shooting 65.3% from three-point range, which suggests a strong potential for high three-point makes based on recent form.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have struggled defensively against three-point shooters, providing Wells with opportunities to capitalize on open looks during the game.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5 for this game, both teams are expected to engage in a fast-paced shootout, leading to more shot opportunities for Wells, especially beyond the arc.
- →TREND: Wells' current production has him averaging 17.4 points over the last five games, indicating an increase in offensive responsibility which bodes well for his ability to hit multiple threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Dallas Mavericks are on a one-game losing streak and in desperate need of a win, which could increase the pace and urgency of the game, drawing Wells into more shooting scenarios including three-point attempts.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
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