Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Brandon Williams Over 4.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2700↓1075%|+2977
player threes alternate
Brandon Williams Over 4.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2700↓1075%|+2977
player threes alternate
51.70
Composite Score
+69.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
75.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks game is projected to be high-scoring, highlighted by the total set at 238.5, which aligns well with Brandon Williams' Over 4.5 three-pointers. Despite some concerns over his recent shooting form, the Mavericks' perimeter defense is vulnerable, and Williams contributes significantly to the offense with an averaging of 4.6 assists. Given the Net EV of 0.70, it indicates that bookmakers are likely undervaluing this bet with a solid chance for Williams to hit at least five three-pointers in a favorable game context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brandon Williams has a strong 3P% of 35.0% over his last five games, which indicates a reasonable chance of making at least one three-pointer.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have shown vulnerabilities in their perimeter defense, which could allow Williams more opportunities to shoot threes, especially given his shooting role.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5, this game is expected to be high-scoring, leading to more offensive possessions and likely more three-point attempts overall.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Williams has averaged 4.6 assists, indicating he is involved in the offense and creates opportunities for himself and teammates, including three-point shots.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Dallas Mavericks are on a one-game losing streak, which could increase their desperation to play aggressively, leading to a more open game where Williams can find room to shoot threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4057948/brandon-williams, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/mem/memphis-grizzlies
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brandon Williams has a recent 3-point shooting percentage of only 35.0%, which is below his season average of 40.0%, indicating a decline in his shooting form.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have been strong defensively against perimeter shooting, limiting opponents to an average of only 32% from beyond the arc, which detracts from Williams' chances of hitting at least one three.
- →NARRATIVE: As the game is expected to have a medium spread (Dallas Mavericks -4.0), it may lead to a tighter contest where every possession is critical, reducing the likelihood for Williams to take unnecessary three-point attempts and potentially lowering his floor.
- →TREND: In their last 5 games against the Dallas Mavericks, Williams hasn't hit more than 0.5 threes in two of those matchups, suggesting he struggles to find his shooting rhythm in this specific matchup context.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Mavericks are also coming off a loss and seeking to improve their defensive game, which could lead to increased pressure on perimeter shooters like Williams, who may not get the open looks needed to exceed 0.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brandon Williams has a strong 3P% of 35.0% over his last five games, which indicates a reasonable chance of making at least one three-pointer.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have shown vulnerabilities in their perimeter defense, which could allow Williams more opportunities to shoot threes, especially given his shooting role.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5, this game is expected to be high-scoring, leading to more offensive possessions and likely more three-point attempts overall.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Williams has averaged 4.6 assists, indicating he is involved in the offense and creates opportunities for himself and teammates, including three-point shots.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Dallas Mavericks are on a one-game losing streak, which could increase their desperation to play aggressively, leading to a more open game where Williams can find room to shoot threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4057948/brandon-williams, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/mem/memphis-grizzlies
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