Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Taylor Hendricks Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1520↓720%|+1765
player threes alternate
Taylor Hendricks Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1520↓720%|+1765
player threes alternate
52.00
Composite Score
+43.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
90.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In a tight contest between the Grizzlies and Mavericks, the expected game script suggests a competitive environment that may limit scoring efficiency, particularly for Hendricks who has averaged only 2.2 field goals in his last five games. Despite some favorable statistics indicating potential for him to attempt threes, his recent performance, low shooting percentage, and the Grizzlies’ defensive reputation make the likelihood of him hitting Over 3.5 threes questionable. The Net EV of 0.44 shows slight value, but it does not provide enough confidence given the risks assessed in the narrative.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Taylor Hendricks has averaged 6.2 points per game over his last five games, showing an increased scoring potential that can support hitting at least one three-pointer.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies, who rank low in three-point defense, are allowing a significant number of open looks from beyond the arc, creating a favorable scenario for Hendricks to make a three.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams struggling under a tight playoff race, a high-scoring game is anticipated, indicated by the total of 238.5, which is conducive to more offensive opportunities for Hendricks.
- →TREND: Despite a recent dip in minutes to an average of 15.8, Hendricks previously played 27 minutes, and an uptick in key game moments could lead to the necessary volume for him to attempt multiple three-point shots.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Dallas Mavericks are currently on a losing streak, which may lead to adjustments in their strategy, potentially creating more openings for Hendricks as players like Luka Doncic draw attention from defenders.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Taylor Hendricks has only made an average of 2.2 field goals per game over the last 5 games, and his 3-point shooting percentage is just 25.0%, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies typically defend the perimeter well, which limits opportunities for opponents to score three-pointers, posing a challenge for Hendricks to hit a three.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be tightly contested (spread of only -4.0), there is a risk that both teams' starters will play heavy minutes, but Hendricks has shown limited offense in crucial situations, impacting his probability of making a three.
- →TREND: Hendricks has struggled to find his rhythm recently, with fewer minutes in the last few games (averaging just 15.8 minutes), contributing to his inability to hit three-pointers consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a recent loss and may be eager to focus on defensive strategies to bounce back, which likely will result in them tightening up their perimeter defense against Hendricks.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Taylor Hendricks has averaged 6.2 points per game over his last five games, showing an increased scoring potential that can support hitting at least one three-pointer.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies, who rank low in three-point defense, are allowing a significant number of open looks from beyond the arc, creating a favorable scenario for Hendricks to make a three.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams struggling under a tight playoff race, a high-scoring game is anticipated, indicated by the total of 238.5, which is conducive to more offensive opportunities for Hendricks.
- →TREND: Despite a recent dip in minutes to an average of 15.8, Hendricks previously played 27 minutes, and an uptick in key game moments could lead to the necessary volume for him to attempt multiple three-point shots.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Dallas Mavericks are currently on a losing streak, which may lead to adjustments in their strategy, potentially creating more openings for Hendricks as players like Luka Doncic draw attention from defenders.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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