Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
G.G. Jackson Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+700↓703%|+816
player threes alternate
G.G. Jackson Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+700↓703%|+816
player threes alternate
49.00
Composite Score
+25.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
82.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game is expected to be high-scoring with a total set at 238.5, which enhances opportunities for G.G. Jackson to take more three-point shots. Although his recent shooting percentage is low, the possibility of increased minutes and a competitive game narrative supports the argument for him to exceed 3.5 made threes. The Net EV of 0.25 indicates that the bet is slightly underpriced, making this wager a reasonable play given the outlined factors.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: G.G. Jackson has averaged 8.4 points and 21.8 minutes per game over the last five games, indicating that as his minutes increase, his scoring potential rises, and he has the opportunity to launch more three-point shots.
- →MATCHUP: The game total is set at 238.5, suggesting a high-scoring affair, which generally promotes more outside shooting and opportunities for players to hit their three-point marks.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Dallas Mavericks being slight favorites and a medium spread of -4.0, the game is expected to remain competitive, suggesting that starters like Jackson will receive significant playing time in the fourth quarter where the game is on the line, allowing more chances to hit threes.
- →TREND: Although Jackson's three-point shooting percentage over the last five games is low at 20.0%, his increased minutes and overall performance, including a FG% of 49.1%, indicates that he is improving his overall shooting touch and is due for positive regression in the three-point column.
- →SITUATIONAL: Both teams are struggling this season, which could extend the competitiveness of the game overall, leading to Jackson playing more than his averages and, therefore, increasing his chances of exceeding 1.5 made threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: G.G. Jackson's recent 3-point shooting percentage is only 20.0%, which is significantly below the league average and indicates difficulty in consistently making three-pointers.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have a strong perimeter defense, which could limit Jackson's opportunities to take and make three-point shots during the game.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the anticipated competitive nature of the game, Jackson may see fewer open looks from beyond the arc as both teams are vying for a much-needed win, affecting his shooting chances.
- →TREND: In his last 5 games, Jackson has only made a total of 1 three-pointer across all games, showing a clear trend of underperformance in long-range shooting.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game's total is set at 238.5, suggesting a possibility of a fast-paced game. However, this pace often leads to more inside shots rather than outside attempts, which works against Jackson exceeding 1.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: G.G. Jackson has averaged 8.4 points and 21.8 minutes per game over the last five games, indicating that as his minutes increase, his scoring potential rises, and he has the opportunity to launch more three-point shots.
- →MATCHUP: The game total is set at 238.5, suggesting a high-scoring affair, which generally promotes more outside shooting and opportunities for players to hit their three-point marks.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Dallas Mavericks being slight favorites and a medium spread of -4.0, the game is expected to remain competitive, suggesting that starters like Jackson will receive significant playing time in the fourth quarter where the game is on the line, allowing more chances to hit threes.
- →TREND: Although Jackson's three-point shooting percentage over the last five games is low at 20.0%, his increased minutes and overall performance, including a FG% of 49.1%, indicates that he is improving his overall shooting touch and is due for positive regression in the three-point column.
- →SITUATIONAL: Both teams are struggling this season, which could extend the competitiveness of the game overall, leading to Jackson playing more than his averages and, therefore, increasing his chances of exceeding 1.5 made threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available