Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Jaylen Wells Under 15.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-110— stable
player points assists
Jaylen Wells Under 15.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-110— stable
player points assists
27.00
Composite Score
+5.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
20.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Considering the mixed evidence from both agents, it's clear that the game narrative leans towards Wells potentially exceeding the combined points and assists threshold. The high-scoring nature of the game and the Mavericks' defensive struggles create an environment that supports more offensive production. With a small positive EV of 0.05, the bet is not strong enough to warrant a wager. The potential for exceeding the 15.5 points and assists combined total appears more plausible than falling short, suggesting that this bet does not provide a confident edge.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells has averaged only 1.4 assists over the last 5 games, which is significantly below the required threshold of 15.5 points and assists combined.
- →MATCHUP: The mismatch against the Dallas Mavericks, who are ranked defensively, suggests a tougher environment for scoring and assisting.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the team's current slump with the Grizzlies losing their last three games, this may lead to limited ball movement and scoring opportunities for Wells.
- →TREND: Wells has been inconsistent with his production, and although he averaged 17.4 points in his last 5 games, his assist numbers have been low, indicating he may not exceed the required total.
- →SITUATIONAL: As an underperforming team with a record of 21-36, the Grizzlies may struggle to maintain competitive play, reducing Wells' chances of reaching higher stats due to decreased minutes or overall team performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells has averaged 17.4 points and 1.4 assists in his last five games, giving him a total of 18.8 combined points and assists per game, which exceeds the 15.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have struggled defensively this season, currently ranking in the bottom half of the league in points allowed, which should create more opportunities for Wells to score and assist.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5 for the game, the expectation is for a fast-paced and high-scoring affair, allowing Wells ample chances to accumulate points and assists throughout the game.
- →TREND: In his last matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, Wells logged 33 minutes and contributed significantly with a game total that suggests he can replicate or improve upon that performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game spread is close at -4.0, which indicates a competitive matchup likely resulting in heavy minutes for key players like Wells, providing him with the potential to exceed his points and assists average.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylen Wells has averaged only 1.4 assists over the last 5 games, which is significantly below the required threshold of 15.5 points and assists combined.
- →MATCHUP: The mismatch against the Dallas Mavericks, who are ranked defensively, suggests a tougher environment for scoring and assisting.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the team's current slump with the Grizzlies losing their last three games, this may lead to limited ball movement and scoring opportunities for Wells.
- →TREND: Wells has been inconsistent with his production, and although he averaged 17.4 points in his last 5 games, his assist numbers have been low, indicating he may not exceed the required total.
- →SITUATIONAL: As an underperforming team with a record of 21-36, the Grizzlies may struggle to maintain competitive play, reducing Wells' chances of reaching higher stats due to decreased minutes or overall team performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available