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Mitchell Robinson Under 4.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-115— stable

player points

Mitchell Robinson Under 4.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-115— stable

player points

27.60

Composite Score

+5.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

22.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Mitchell Robinson Under 4.5 points leans on the expectation of a low-scoring output from him against a strong defensive Milwaukee Bucks team. With Robinson averaging only 2.4 points over his last five games and the risky potential of being removed early in a blowout scenario due to an 8.5 point spread, the conditions favor a strong under performance. The Net EV of 0.06 supports this view, suggesting that the market has mispriced Robinson's scoring potential in this matchup, though it does not provide a strong enough edge to warrant a full bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Mitchell Robinson has averaged only 2.4 points per game over his last five games, indicating a significant underperformance relative to the 4.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are a top defensive team, and Robinson may struggle to score against their frontcourt, limiting his opportunities to reach the required point total.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the spread of 8.5 suggests a potentially large gap in the score, Robinson might be pulled early from the game if it turns out to be a blowout situation, further reducing his scoring chances.
→TREND: Robinson has only managed to score above 4.5 points in one of his last five games, reinforcing a concerning trend of limited scoring output.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knicks' recent loss suggests they are not performing at their best, which could result in less time for Robinson on the court as they may rely on their main scorers, leading to fewer scoring opportunities for him.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Mitchell Robinson has been averaging 5.1 points per game this season, which is above the 4.5 points threshold. This suggests a statistical baseline that supports him exceeding this point total.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have struggled defensively, allowing opponents a significant scoring opportunity in the paint, which plays to Robinson's strength as a center who scores primarily close to the basket.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread indicating a large point margin (Milwaukee Bucks +8.5), the game is expected to be competitive, increasing the likelihood of Robinson getting more minutes on the floor and thus more opportunities to score.
→TREND: In the last 5 games, while averaging only 2.4 points, Robinson's minutes have increased slightly to 21.0 per game, indicating a possibility for more scoring opportunities if he continues to get more time.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are currently on a one-game losing streak and would likely rely more on their starters, including Robinson, to bounce back and capitalize against a weaker Bucks team, which could lead to him exceeding his scoring average.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Mitchell Robinson has averaged only 2.4 points per game over his last five games, indicating a significant underperformance relative to the 4.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are a top defensive team, and Robinson may struggle to score against their frontcourt, limiting his opportunities to reach the required point total.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the spread of 8.5 suggests a potentially large gap in the score, Robinson might be pulled early from the game if it turns out to be a blowout situation, further reducing his scoring chances.
→TREND: Robinson has only managed to score above 4.5 points in one of his last five games, reinforcing a concerning trend of limited scoring output.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knicks' recent loss suggests they are not performing at their best, which could result in less time for Robinson on the court as they may rely on their main scorers, leading to fewer scoring opportunities for him.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2