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Kevin Porter Jr. Under 18.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

+110— stable

player points

Kevin Porter Jr. Under 18.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

+110— stable

player points

31.00

Composite Score

+7.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

32.30

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This wager on Kevin Porter Jr. Under 18.5 points makes sense given the expected game narrative of a low-scoring matchup between the Knicks and Bucks, with a total of just 218.5. Porter Jr.'s recent performance has consistently fallen short of this line, averaging only 12.6 points per game, while facing a tough Bucks defense that limits scoring opportunities for guards. The Net EV of 0.08 reflects these insights, indicating that the market may have undervalued this bet due to Porter Jr.'s increasing playing time without translating to an increase in points against formidable opposition.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Kevin Porter Jr. has a recent points per game average of only 12.6, which is significantly below the 18.5 threshold he needs to exceed.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have been a tough defensive team, making it difficult for opposing guards to score, which directly impacts Porter Jr.'s scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With a total of 218.5 for the game, it's expected to be relatively low-scoring, which typically results in fewer points for individual players, including Porter Jr.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Porter Jr. has consistently underperformed, with a maximum of 14 points, indicating a trend of failing to hit the 18.5 mark recently.
→SITUATIONAL: The game's spread of 8.5 suggests the potential for a blowout, which could lead to reduced minutes for Porter Jr. if the Knicks pull ahead early.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Kevin Porter Jr. has averaged 12.6 points over the last 5 games, and with his increased playing time (28.6 minutes), he has the opportunity to exceed 18.5 points especially given his recent scoring trends.
→MATCHUP: The New York Knicks' defensive weakness in guarding perimeter shooters can provide Kevin Porter Jr. with open shot opportunities, leveraging his offensive skills to score more effectively.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread indicating a potential high-scoring game (Milwaukee Bucks +8.5) and a total of 218.5, a close match will increase the likelihood of Porter seeing heavy minutes to attempt to keep pace with the scoring.
→TREND: In past games against the Milwaukee Bucks, Porter Jr. has played significant minutes, with an average of 29.0 minutes and showing he can perform well, hinting at his capability to exceed the point threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knights are playing without any reported injuries which allows them to utilize Porter in a more offensive role, while Milwaukee has seen a two-game win streak boosting overall team momentum for this matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Kevin Porter Jr. has a recent points per game average of only 12.6, which is significantly below the 18.5 threshold he needs to exceed.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have been a tough defensive team, making it difficult for opposing guards to score, which directly impacts Porter Jr.'s scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With a total of 218.5 for the game, it's expected to be relatively low-scoring, which typically results in fewer points for individual players, including Porter Jr.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Porter Jr. has consistently underperformed, with a maximum of 14 points, indicating a trend of failing to hit the 18.5 mark recently.
→SITUATIONAL: The game's spread of 8.5 suggests the potential for a blowout, which could lead to reduced minutes for Porter Jr. if the Knicks pull ahead early.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats