Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Bobby Portis Under 9.5 points
💤 Noise Bet
+100— stable
player points
Bobby Portis Under 9.5 points
💤 Noise Bet
+100— stable
player points
29.10
Composite Score
+6.5%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
26.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, it's expected that the New York Knicks will apply strong defensive pressure against the Milwaukee Bucks, leading to lower point totals for individual players like Bobby Portis. Despite his recent scoring average of 13.4, the game narrative suggests a tighter contest that could limit his scoring opportunities, especially if the game becomes a blowout. The Net EV of 0.07 indicates a slight underpricing by the bookmakers, making it a reasonable, albeit cautious, option to bet the Under on Portis's points.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Bobby Portis has a recent average of 13.4 points per game over the last five games, but has only been averaging 22.2 minutes on the court, which limits scoring opportunities.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have a tough matchup against the New York Knicks, who have been performing well defensively. This could lead to a heavily contested game which usually results in lower individual point totals.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 8.5 in favor of the Knicks, it's likely that the game could turn into a blowout, leading to Portis being pulled early in favor of bench players as the Bucks struggle to keep up, impacting his ability to score.
- →TREND: In the last five performances against the Knicks, Portis has not scored more than 9 points in multiple matchups, indicating a trend of underperformance against this opponent specifically.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Bucks are currently on a two-game winning streak, which may lead to complacency, but they have been inconsistent throughout the season, suggesting that they may not rely on Portis to be a primary scorer in a potentially high-pressure game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2960817/bobby-portis, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/ny/new-york-knicks, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-bucks
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Bobby Portis is averaging 13.4 points per game over his last five games, significantly exceeding the 9.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks, despite their lower record, have a high-scoring potential, which creates an environment conducive for Bobby Portis to score more given the spread of +8.5.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 218.5 for the game, the expectation for scoring is elevated, leading to favorable conditions for Portis to exceed his points average.
- →TREND: Portis has consistently been scoring above 9.5 points, as his recent performances showcase his ability to put up higher numbers, even in varying minutes played.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Bucks are coming off two consecutive wins, which can lead to momentum and confidence in scoring opportunities for Portis, paired with the Knicks' recent loss increasing urgency for Milwaukee to perform.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Bobby Portis has a recent average of 13.4 points per game over the last five games, but has only been averaging 22.2 minutes on the court, which limits scoring opportunities.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have a tough matchup against the New York Knicks, who have been performing well defensively. This could lead to a heavily contested game which usually results in lower individual point totals.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 8.5 in favor of the Knicks, it's likely that the game could turn into a blowout, leading to Portis being pulled early in favor of bench players as the Bucks struggle to keep up, impacting his ability to score.
- →TREND: In the last five performances against the Knicks, Portis has not scored more than 9 points in multiple matchups, indicating a trend of underperformance against this opponent specifically.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Bucks are currently on a two-game winning streak, which may lead to complacency, but they have been inconsistent throughout the season, suggesting that they may not rely on Portis to be a primary scorer in a potentially high-pressure game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2960817/bobby-portis, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/ny/new-york-knicks, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-bucks
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