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Mitchell Robinson Under 4.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-117— stable

player points

Mitchell Robinson Under 4.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-117— stable

player points

27.00

Composite Score

+5.3%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

20.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, the evidence suggests that Mitchell Robinson is likely to struggle to exceed 4.5 points due to his recent scoring trend of averaging only 2.4 points over the last five games and facing a tough Bucks defense. Though there are some indicators that he could have opportunities if the game remains competitive, the overall narrative aligns more strongly with him failing to reach the total, making this wager less reliable despite a slight positive EV of 0.05.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Mitchell Robinson has averaged only 2.4 points per game over his last five games, indicating a significant underperformance relative to the 4.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are a top defensive team, and Robinson may struggle to score against their frontcourt, limiting his opportunities to reach the required point total.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the spread of 8.5 suggests a potentially large gap in the score, Robinson might be pulled early from the game if it turns out to be a blowout situation, further reducing his scoring chances.
→TREND: Robinson has only managed to score above 4.5 points in one of his last five games, reinforcing a concerning trend of limited scoring output.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knicks' recent loss suggests they are not performing at their best, which could result in less time for Robinson on the court as they may rely on their main scorers, leading to fewer scoring opportunities for him.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Mitchell Robinson has been averaging 5.1 points per game this season, which is above the 4.5 points threshold. This suggests a statistical baseline that supports him exceeding this point total.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have struggled defensively, allowing opponents a significant scoring opportunity in the paint, which plays to Robinson's strength as a center who scores primarily close to the basket.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread indicating a large point margin (Milwaukee Bucks +8.5), the game is expected to be competitive, increasing the likelihood of Robinson getting more minutes on the floor and thus more opportunities to score.
→TREND: In the last 5 games, while averaging only 2.4 points, Robinson's minutes have increased slightly to 21.0 per game, indicating a possibility for more scoring opportunities if he continues to get more time.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are currently on a one-game losing streak and would likely rely more on their starters, including Robinson, to bounce back and capitalize against a weaker Bucks team, which could lead to him exceeding his scoring average.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Mitchell Robinson has averaged only 2.4 points per game over his last five games, indicating a significant underperformance relative to the 4.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are a top defensive team, and Robinson may struggle to score against their frontcourt, limiting his opportunities to reach the required point total.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the spread of 8.5 suggests a potentially large gap in the score, Robinson might be pulled early from the game if it turns out to be a blowout situation, further reducing his scoring chances.
→TREND: Robinson has only managed to score above 4.5 points in one of his last five games, reinforcing a concerning trend of limited scoring output.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knicks' recent loss suggests they are not performing at their best, which could result in less time for Robinson on the court as they may rely on their main scorers, leading to fewer scoring opportunities for him.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2