Sam Hauser Under 9.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-110— stable

player points

Sam Hauser Under 9.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-110— stable

player points

29.90

Composite Score

+7.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

28.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, I expect a low-scoring game for Sam Hauser, as the Celtics are heavily favored, which often leads to reduced playing minutes for role players like him. Despite Hauser's increased minutes recently, the overall context of a potential blowout suggests his opportunities to score under 9.5 points will be limited. The Net EV of 0.07 indicates a slight edge, reflecting the likelihood that the market is underestimating how a blowout scenario will impact Hauser's production.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Sam Hauser has averaged only 6.6 points over his last 5 games, significantly below the threshold of 9.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The Celtics are heavily favored to win by 18 points, indicating that the game may result in a blowout, which often leads to reduced minutes and scoring opportunities for depth players like Hauser.
→NARRATIVE: In a potential blowout scenario, the Celtics may opt to rest their starters, reducing Hauser's playing time and chances to score significantly.
→TREND: Hauser's scoring has decreased, as he has only scored over 9.5 points in 1 out of his last 5 games, showing a worrying trend in his production.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the recent stretch of games for the Nets, which they have lost 6 in a row, they might struggle in this contest, leading to reduced offensive efficiency and challenge for Hauser to find scoring opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Sam Hauser is averaging 6.6 points per game over his last 5 games, but he has seen an increase in minutes played to 22.4, suggesting more opportunities to score.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are favorites with a significant -18.0 spread, indicating a likely high-scoring game which allows for increased scoring opportunities for Hauser off the bench.
→NARRATIVE: Given the Celtics' performance and the likelihood of a blowout win, Hauser could see extended minutes in garbage time, providing chances to exceed 9.5 points.
→TREND: Despite averaging just 6.6 points in his last 5 games, Hauser has a 3-point shooting percentage of 40.0%, giving him the ability to hit multiple threes and reach double digits if provided with enough attempts.
→SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are in a significant playoff positioning race and following their recent loss, they are likely to be aggressive in this game, increasing pace and scoring opportunities for all players, including Hauser.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Sam Hauser has averaged only 6.6 points over his last 5 games, significantly below the threshold of 9.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The Celtics are heavily favored to win by 18 points, indicating that the game may result in a blowout, which often leads to reduced minutes and scoring opportunities for depth players like Hauser.
→NARRATIVE: In a potential blowout scenario, the Celtics may opt to rest their starters, reducing Hauser's playing time and chances to score significantly.
→TREND: Hauser's scoring has decreased, as he has only scored over 9.5 points in 1 out of his last 5 games, showing a worrying trend in his production.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the recent stretch of games for the Nets, which they have lost 6 in a row, they might struggle in this contest, leading to reduced offensive efficiency and challenge for Hauser to find scoring opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2