Payton Pritchard Under 2.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+115— stable

player threes

Payton Pritchard Under 2.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+115— stable

player threes

37.70

Composite Score

+12.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

51.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, the Boston Celtics are heavily favored against the Brooklyn Nets, which suggests a potential blowout and reduced minutes for Payton Pritchard, limiting his shot opportunities. His recent three-point percentage at 31.0% and an average of just 2.2 made threes in his last five games solidify the expectation that he won't exceed 2.5 three-pointers. The Net EV of 0.13 indicates that the bookmaker has underpriced this bet given the context of a low-scoring game, which further supports the case for betting on the Under.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Payton Pritchard has a recent 3P percentage of only 31.0%, significantly below his season average of 40.7%, indicating difficulty in hitting threes consistently.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are heavily favored with a spread of -18.0, suggesting a potential blowout that could limit Pritchard's minutes and shot opportunities in the second half.
→NARRATIVE: With the game's total set at 209.5, it indicates a low-scoring affair, which generally results in fewer overall three-point attempts and makes it harder for players to exceed their shooting thresholds.
→TREND: In his last five games, Pritchard has averaged only 2.2 three-pointers made per game, highlighting a consistent underperformance in this category recently.
→SITUATIONAL: The lack of close-game situations in this matchup (owing to the large spread) may lead to Pritchard seeing fewer minutes, as deeper bench players often get more playtime in non-competitive games.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Payton Pritchard has a recent average of 5.6 FG made per game and despite a 3P% of 31.0%, he has been given ample opportunity with 32.2 minutes of playing time over the last 5 games, suggesting more chances for three-point shots.
→MATCHUP: Facing the Brooklyn Nets, who have struggled defensively throughout the season, provides Pritchard with an advantageous matchup where the Celtics are expected to score frequently, allowing him to capitalize on open three-point opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With Boston projected to win heavily by a spread of -18.0, a high-scoring game is anticipated. This scenario would lead to more possessions and shot attempts, which could help Pritchard surpass the 2.5 three-pointers target.
→TREND: In the last game against the Brooklyn Nets, despite not performing his best, Pritchard logged 30 minutes and also had a notable +/- of 0.0, indicating he can be effective on the court, and with more consistent performance could find his rhythm from beyond the arc.
→SITUATIONAL: The Boston Celtics currently hold a strong playoff position (#2 seed) and will be motivated to improve their standings after a recent loss, potentially leading to Pritchard playing heavy minutes to exploit the Nets' weaknesses in the game.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Payton Pritchard has a recent 3P percentage of only 31.0%, significantly below his season average of 40.7%, indicating difficulty in hitting threes consistently.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are heavily favored with a spread of -18.0, suggesting a potential blowout that could limit Pritchard's minutes and shot opportunities in the second half.
→NARRATIVE: With the game's total set at 209.5, it indicates a low-scoring affair, which generally results in fewer overall three-point attempts and makes it harder for players to exceed their shooting thresholds.
→TREND: In his last five games, Pritchard has averaged only 2.2 three-pointers made per game, highlighting a consistent underperformance in this category recently.
→SITUATIONAL: The lack of close-game situations in this matchup (owing to the large spread) may lead to Pritchard seeing fewer minutes, as deeper bench players often get more playtime in non-competitive games.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2