Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Noah Clowney Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+140— stable
player threes
Noah Clowney Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+140— stable
player threes
36.70
Composite Score
+11.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
49.20
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game script indicates that the Boston Celtics' strong defense, particularly against forwards, will likely limit Noah Clowney's attempts at three-pointers. Coupled with the potential for reduced minutes due to a significant spread (-18.0), his opportunities to hit more than 1.5 threes appear slim. The Net EV of 0.12 suggests a slight underpricing, but the contextual factors argue against placing a bet on this line as the risk seems to outweigh the reward.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Noah Clowney's recent 3P% is 42.2%, which indicates that while he has been shooting well, his overall attempts have been limited, as his scoring average is only 17.2 points per game, suggesting a low volume of threes attempted.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are one of the top defensive teams in the league, particularly against forwards. This matchup could limit Clowney's opportunities to find open looks for three-pointers, especially with their ability to close out on shooters.
- →NARRATIVE: The game has a significant spread of Boston Celtics -18.0, indicating a likely blowout scenario. If the Celtics extend their lead, Clowney may see reduced minutes in garbage time and fewer opportunities to shoot threes.
- →TREND: Clowney has frequently played under 30 minutes in prior match-ups against elite teams, limiting his shot volume. In the last five games, he has averaged just 30.6 minutes, not guaranteeing the high minutes needed for him to consistently hit over 1.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Brooklyn Nets are currently on a losing streak (L6), and poor team morale can often lead to lower overall offensive production and fewer scoring opportunities, which is detrimental for Clowney hitting over 1.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, Basketball Reference
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Noah Clowney has recently shot 42.2% from three-point range over the last 5 games, indicating that he has the ability to exceed 1.5 threes given his current form.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets will be facing the Boston Celtics, who have allowed a decent number of three-pointers, providing Clowney the opportunity to exploit this defense and hit multiple threes.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread set at Boston Celtics -18.0, the game script suggests that Brooklyn will be playing catch-up, leading to potential increased perimeter shots for Clowney as they seek to close the gap.
- →TREND: Clowney's recent performance has been strong, averaging 17.2 points per game, which not only indicates higher scoring but suggests he is likely to be more involved in offensive plays that could lead to three-point attempts.
- →SITUATIONAL: Clowney's minutes per game have increased to 30.6 recently, ensuring he has ample playing time to make an impact and sink multiple three-pointers, especially in a high-pressure game against a stronger opponent.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Noah Clowney's recent 3P% is 42.2%, which indicates that while he has been shooting well, his overall attempts have been limited, as his scoring average is only 17.2 points per game, suggesting a low volume of threes attempted.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are one of the top defensive teams in the league, particularly against forwards. This matchup could limit Clowney's opportunities to find open looks for three-pointers, especially with their ability to close out on shooters.
- →NARRATIVE: The game has a significant spread of Boston Celtics -18.0, indicating a likely blowout scenario. If the Celtics extend their lead, Clowney may see reduced minutes in garbage time and fewer opportunities to shoot threes.
- →TREND: Clowney has frequently played under 30 minutes in prior match-ups against elite teams, limiting his shot volume. In the last five games, he has averaged just 30.6 minutes, not guaranteeing the high minutes needed for him to consistently hit over 1.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Brooklyn Nets are currently on a losing streak (L6), and poor team morale can often lead to lower overall offensive production and fewer scoring opportunities, which is detrimental for Clowney hitting over 1.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, Basketball Reference
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