Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Ausar Thompson Under 0.5 blocks
💤 Noise Bet
-110↑205%|-215
player blocks
Ausar Thompson Under 0.5 blocks
💤 Noise Bet
-110↑205%|-215
player blocks
30.40
Composite Score
+7.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
30.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the high-scoring expected outcome of the game and Cleveland's strong offensive proficiency, Thompson's opportunities for registering blocks are limited. Coupled with his inconsistency in the past few games, including recording 0 blocks in multiple matchups, it makes sense to lean towards the Under 0.5 blocks. The Net EV of 0.08 reflects that the market may be slightly mispricing this bet, increasing confidence in the decision.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ausar Thompson's recent performance shows a mixed average of 1.2 blocks in the last 5 games, but he recorded 0 blocks in 2 of those games, indicating inconsistency in achieving more than 0.5 blocks.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers have consistently been a strong team offensively with a high shooting percentage, which may reduce Thompson's opportunities to register blocks as the Cavaliers can score effectively without challenging his defensive positioning.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total being set at 227.5, it is expected to be high-scoring, leading to fewer opportunities for Thompson to focus on shot-blocking as players prioritize offensive production.
- →TREND: Thompson's block totals against the Cavaliers in his recent matchups show variability; despite having achieved 2 blocks in one game against them, he also had zero blocks in another, emphasizing an unreliable trend for exceeding 0.5 blocks.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are on a winning streak, which could result in significant rotation of players and reduced minutes for Thompson, limiting his chances to reach over 0.5 blocks if he doesn't play extended minutes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ausar Thompson's recent performance shows he averaged 1.2 blocks per game over the last five games, which is well above the 0.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers have a strong frontcourt, which increases the volume of shot attempts within the paint, providing Thompson more opportunities to record blocks.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the matchup against a playoff-competitive team like the Cavaliers, it is likely to be a close game, requiring Thompson to play significant minutes, thus increasing his chances to exceed 0.5 blocks.
- →TREND: In the two previous matchups against the Pistons, Thompson recorded block numbers of 4.0 and 2.0, indicating he has performed well historically against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons have momentum from a recent win streak, suggesting that the added intensity of the game could lead to more aggressive defensive plays from Thompson.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ausar Thompson's recent performance shows a mixed average of 1.2 blocks in the last 5 games, but he recorded 0 blocks in 2 of those games, indicating inconsistency in achieving more than 0.5 blocks.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers have consistently been a strong team offensively with a high shooting percentage, which may reduce Thompson's opportunities to register blocks as the Cavaliers can score effectively without challenging his defensive positioning.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total being set at 227.5, it is expected to be high-scoring, leading to fewer opportunities for Thompson to focus on shot-blocking as players prioritize offensive production.
- →TREND: Thompson's block totals against the Cavaliers in his recent matchups show variability; despite having achieved 2 blocks in one game against them, he also had zero blocks in another, emphasizing an unreliable trend for exceeding 0.5 blocks.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are on a winning streak, which could result in significant rotation of players and reduced minutes for Thompson, limiting his chances to reach over 0.5 blocks if he doesn't play extended minutes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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