Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 5.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1900↓544%|+1605
player assists alternate
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 5.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1900↓544%|+1605
player assists alternate
48.20
Composite Score
+32.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
77.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This wager on Yaxel Lendeborg to go Over 5.5 assists is strong due to the high-scoring narrative of this matchup, exemplified by the total line of 158.5 points. The Illinois Fighting Illini's defensive efficiency suggests they may allow several scoring opportunities, and with Michigan's consistent performance and reliance on primary ball handlers like Lendeborg, there's a solid chance he'll exceed his assist average. The Net EV of 0.32 indicates that the market has underpriced this bet in light of favorable conditions for assists.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Yaxel Lendeborg has demonstrated solid passing ability, averaging 3.0 assists in the last 5 games, indicating a strong likelihood he will exceed 2.5 assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have allowed an average of 14.5 assists per game to opponents this season, suggesting favorable conditions for Lendeborg to facilitate scoring opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams performing well this season and a high total of 158.5 indicates an expected high-scoring matchup, this environment enhances the opportunity for assists.
- →TREND: The Michigan Wolverines have won consistently, which often correlates with higher individual performances as starters tend to play heavier minutes in winning situations.
- →SITUATIONAL: Michigan's strong away record of 9-0 signifies they perform well in hostile environments, which tends to lead to increased reliance on primary ball handlers like Lendeborg, facilitating more assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for Yaxel Lendeborg's assist averages to indicate he will exceed 2.5 assists. Without known stats supporting his assist potential, this outcome remains uncertain.
- →MATCHUP: Illinois Fighting Illini's defensive efficiency may limit Lendeborg's assist opportunities. As a top 10 team, they are likely to have defensive schemes that stifle opposing offensive production.
- →NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be competitive (spread of +1.5), which could mean both teams prioritize scoring efficiency over distributing assists, diminishing the likelihood of Lendeborg exceeding 2.5 assists.
- →TREND: Lendeborg's historical performance data against similarly ranked opponents is not available, but it's reasonable to expect that he may struggle to adapt to the more intense defensive efforts from a high-caliber team like Illinois.
- →SITUATIONAL: Lendeborg's role may be limited due to the competitive nature of the game. With both teams close in record and ranked high, both coaches are likely to tighten rotations and go with their more reliable players, limiting Lendeborg’s opportunity for assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Yaxel Lendeborg has demonstrated solid passing ability, averaging 3.0 assists in the last 5 games, indicating a strong likelihood he will exceed 2.5 assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have allowed an average of 14.5 assists per game to opponents this season, suggesting favorable conditions for Lendeborg to facilitate scoring opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams performing well this season and a high total of 158.5 indicates an expected high-scoring matchup, this environment enhances the opportunity for assists.
- →TREND: The Michigan Wolverines have won consistently, which often correlates with higher individual performances as starters tend to play heavier minutes in winning situations.
- →SITUATIONAL: Michigan's strong away record of 9-0 signifies they perform well in hostile environments, which tends to lead to increased reliance on primary ball handlers like Lendeborg, facilitating more assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available