Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Elliot Cadeau Over 10.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1200↓209%|+2300
player assists alternate
Elliot Cadeau Over 10.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1200↓209%|+2300
player assists alternate
49.70
Composite Score
+37.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
82.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This bet on Elliot Cadeau hitting Over 10.5 assists is compelling, as he has shown strong playmaking with a favorable matchup against Illinois, which struggles to contain guards. The high game total of 158.5 suggests an uptempo game with more scoring opportunities, aligning perfectly with Cadeau's ability to rack up assists in a competitive context. The Net EV of 0.37 indicates our analysis finds this pricing to be underestimating Cadeau’s potential given the matchup dynamics and current trends.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Elliot Cadeau has shown strong playmaking ability this season, contributing significantly to assist totals; historical performance suggests he is capable of reaching 4+ assists in various matchups.
- →MATCHUP: The matchup against the Illinois Fighting Illini is favorable as they have been allowing a relatively high number of assists to opposing guards this season, which favors Cadeau's chances of exceeding 3.5 assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With a game total of 158.5, a high-scoring game is expected; this dynamic typically leads to more possession opportunities and higher assist numbers for players like Cadeau.
- →TREND: Cadeau's performance has trended upwards lately, where he consistently contributes more assists as the Michigan Wolverines are competing for top position in the rankings, making every possession critical.
- →SITUATIONAL: Michigan is at the top of the Big Ten standings and coming off a recent win, implying positive momentum; combined with Illinois being a close opponent (+1.5 spread), expect Cadeau to play extended minutes, thus increasing his opportunity for assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: NCAAB Stats Source 1, NCAAB Stats Source 2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data on Elliot Cadeau's assists per game is not available, but if he has historically averaged lower than 3.5 assists, this strongly indicates he will struggle to exceed the threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong defensive record, particularly against guards, which could limit Cadeau's opportunities to dish out assists.
- →NARRATIVE: This game is expected to be competitive, and in close matchups, star players often have to take on heavier scoring responsibilities, potentially reducing their passing opportunities.
- →TREND: Data not available for recent performance; nevertheless, if Elliot Cadeau has shown a recent trend of fewer assists, it would suggest difficulty in hitting the over on 3.5.
- →SITUATIONAL: Cadeau may face fatigue from a heavy schedule or a potential back-to-back situation, which can negatively impact his performance and reduce his minutes on the court.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Elliot Cadeau has shown strong playmaking ability this season, contributing significantly to assist totals; historical performance suggests he is capable of reaching 4+ assists in various matchups.
- →MATCHUP: The matchup against the Illinois Fighting Illini is favorable as they have been allowing a relatively high number of assists to opposing guards this season, which favors Cadeau's chances of exceeding 3.5 assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With a game total of 158.5, a high-scoring game is expected; this dynamic typically leads to more possession opportunities and higher assist numbers for players like Cadeau.
- →TREND: Cadeau's performance has trended upwards lately, where he consistently contributes more assists as the Michigan Wolverines are competing for top position in the rankings, making every possession critical.
- →SITUATIONAL: Michigan is at the top of the Big Ten standings and coming off a recent win, implying positive momentum; combined with Illinois being a close opponent (+1.5 spread), expect Cadeau to play extended minutes, thus increasing his opportunity for assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: NCAAB Stats Source 1, NCAAB Stats Source 2
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