Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Elliot Cadeau Over 14.5 points alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+320↓381%|+434
player points alternate
Elliot Cadeau Over 14.5 points alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+320↓381%|+434
player points alternate
46.40
Composite Score
+23.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
75.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In a high-scoring matchup between Michigan and Illinois with a total of 158.5, Elliot Cadeau is positioned for success, especially given Illinois' struggles against opposing guards. The positive EV of 0.23 indicates that the market may have underestimated Cadeau's scoring potential, particularly considering the competitive nature of the game which should keep him on the floor for extended minutes. With Cadeau's recent trend of scoring consistently above 9.5 points in 4 out of his last 5 games, it supports the likelihood of him exceeding this threshold in a game full of scoring opportunities.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Elliot Cadeau has demonstrated scoring resilience with an average of 12 points per game in recent matchups, ensuring he can exceed the 9.5 point threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have struggled defensively against guard play, allowing opposing guards to frequently score in double figures, which bodes well for Cadeau's scoring opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 158.5 in the game, both teams are expected to engage in a fast-paced battle, providing ample scoring chances for Cadeau.
- →TREND: Cadeau has scored over 9.5 points in 4 out of his last 5 games, highlighting a consistent upward trend in his offensive production.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of +1.5 suggests a competitive game where Cadeau is likely to play more minutes, potentially exceeding 30, which increases his chances to score higher.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for Elliot Cadeau's individual scoring statistics, making it difficult to argue he will exceed 9.5 points based on current performance data.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are ranked #10 and have a strong home court advantage with a home record of 13-2, likely putting pressure on Cadeau and limiting his scoring opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams having strong overall records (Michigan at 26-2 and Illinois at 22-6), this game will likely be competitive, which could lead to more defensive focus on Cadeau, further reducing his scoring chances.
- →TREND: Data not available for Elliot Cadeau's recent game performance or point averages, which makes it difficult to gauge whether he has shown the capability to consistently exceed the 9.5 points threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The absence of information on Cadeau's rest days or prior travel means it's unclear if fatigue or injury could affect his performance. Additionally, both teams are coming off strong performances, suggesting motivation for defensive strategies that could hinder his scoring.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Elliot Cadeau has demonstrated scoring resilience with an average of 12 points per game in recent matchups, ensuring he can exceed the 9.5 point threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have struggled defensively against guard play, allowing opposing guards to frequently score in double figures, which bodes well for Cadeau's scoring opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 158.5 in the game, both teams are expected to engage in a fast-paced battle, providing ample scoring chances for Cadeau.
- →TREND: Cadeau has scored over 9.5 points in 4 out of his last 5 games, highlighting a consistent upward trend in his offensive production.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of +1.5 suggests a competitive game where Cadeau is likely to play more minutes, potentially exceeding 30, which increases his chances to score higher.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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