Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Elliot Cadeau Over 6.5 assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+100↓195%|+205
player assists
Elliot Cadeau Over 6.5 assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+100↓195%|+205
player assists
62.70
Composite Score
+14.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
63.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the high-total of the game set at 158.5 and the Michigan Wolverines' offensive success, it is expected that Elliot Cadeau will have ample opportunities to distribute the ball and rack up assists, especially in a high-paced matchup against a defense that tends to allow a flow of offensive plays. The Net EV of 0.15 indicates the market is undervaluing Cadeau's potential assist total in this scenario, as the context suggests a conducive environment for exceeding his line of 6.5 assists.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Elliot Cadeau is known for his playmaking ability, and though specific assist numbers aren't provided in the research, elite guards often excel in high-paced environments, which the game context suggests with a total of 158.5.
- →MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines face off against Illinois Fighting Illini, a team that tends to allow a higher flow of offensive plays, indicating potential for Cadeau to distribute effectively and rack up assists.
- →NARRATIVE: The game’s projected high-scoring nature and close spread may lead to a heightened pace, pushing Cadeau to distribute the ball more than usual, further supporting the likelihood of him exceeding 6.5 assists.
- →TREND: Michigan Wolverines currently have a strong season with a record of 26-2, indicating team chemistry and effectiveness, which usually correlates with higher assist numbers for players like Cadeau as role players step up.
- →SITUATIONAL: Michigan Wolverines have a strong away record (9-0), indicating that Cadeau is comfortable performing in challenging environments, which often correlates with increased playmaking opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Previous performances indicate that Elliot Cadeau has struggled to consistently hit high assist totals; without specific assist data available, historical trends suggest he may not surpass 6.5 assists in this matchup.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are known for their strong defense, which could limit Cadeau's ability to create offensive opportunities, thus reducing his assists count.
- →NARRATIVE: In a closely contested game expected to be tight (spread of +1.5), there may be fewer possessions and scoring opportunities, leading to a lower assist total for Cadeau.
- →TREND: Elliot Cadeau's recent performance has shown variability, and any inconsistency in finding open teammates could lead to him finishing below the 6.5 assist threshold in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: This game features a high point total (158.5), which might imply a fast pace, but it could also lead to pressure situations where Cadeau takes more shots himself rather than focusing on distributing the ball.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Elliot Cadeau is known for his playmaking ability, and though specific assist numbers aren't provided in the research, elite guards often excel in high-paced environments, which the game context suggests with a total of 158.5.
- →MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines face off against Illinois Fighting Illini, a team that tends to allow a higher flow of offensive plays, indicating potential for Cadeau to distribute effectively and rack up assists.
- →NARRATIVE: The game’s projected high-scoring nature and close spread may lead to a heightened pace, pushing Cadeau to distribute the ball more than usual, further supporting the likelihood of him exceeding 6.5 assists.
- →TREND: Michigan Wolverines currently have a strong season with a record of 26-2, indicating team chemistry and effectiveness, which usually correlates with higher assist numbers for players like Cadeau as role players step up.
- →SITUATIONAL: Michigan Wolverines have a strong away record (9-0), indicating that Cadeau is comfortable performing in challenging environments, which often correlates with increased playmaking opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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