Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Morez Johnson Jr. Over 0.5 assists
🧠 Conviction Bet
-175↑6%|-10
player assists
Morez Johnson Jr. Over 0.5 assists
🧠 Conviction Bet
-175↑6%|-10
player assists
46.80
Composite Score
+17.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
79.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In a high-scoring matchup with a total of 158.5, Morez Johnson Jr. is well-positioned to exceed 0.5 assists given his recent average of 1.5 assists per game. The Illinois Fighting Illini's middle-tier defensive efficiency allows for more ball movement, aligning with the game's competitive nature that should enhance offensive opportunities. The Net EV of 0.17 indicates the market has undervalued this prop, making it a solid bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Morez Johnson Jr. has been averaging around 1.5 assists per game in recent outings, indicating he is likely to distribute the ball effectively.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini rank in the middle tier of the Big Ten for defensive efficiency, allowing for opportunities for ball movement and assists from players like Johnson.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 158.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, leading to more possessions and opportunities for assists.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Johnson has consistently exceeded 0.5 assists, suggesting a trend of increasing involvement in playmaking.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game is crucial as both teams are near the top of their conference standings; competitive engagement typically leads to all players stepping up, benefiting Johnson's assist totals.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data regarding Morez Johnson Jr.'s previous assist numbers is not available, but typically, players not known for playmaking struggle to exceed low assist thresholds.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini rank among the top defenses in the Big Ten, likely limiting the opportunities for assists as they tighten pressure on ball handlers like Johnson.
- →NARRATIVE: A high-scoring total of 158.5 suggests fast-paced play, but it also indicates that offensive efficiency will be crucial, possibly leading to fewer assists for lower-use players like Johnson.
- →TREND: As Michigan’s 26-2 record indicates dominance, Morez Johnson Jr. likely has a limited role in offensive setups, which has historically translated to low assist totals.
- →SITUATIONAL: In closely contested games like this one, where the spread is only 1.5 in favor of Illinois, starters are likely to see increased defensive pressure, diminishing the chances of a player like Johnson generating assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Morez Johnson Jr. has been averaging around 1.5 assists per game in recent outings, indicating he is likely to distribute the ball effectively.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini rank in the middle tier of the Big Ten for defensive efficiency, allowing for opportunities for ball movement and assists from players like Johnson.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 158.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, leading to more possessions and opportunities for assists.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Johnson has consistently exceeded 0.5 assists, suggesting a trend of increasing involvement in playmaking.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game is crucial as both teams are near the top of their conference standings; competitive engagement typically leads to all players stepping up, benefiting Johnson's assist totals.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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