Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Ace Bailey Over 24.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+533↓167%|+1333
player points assists alternate
Ace Bailey Over 24.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+533↓167%|+1333
player points assists alternate
59.60
Composite Score
+25.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
80.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this game, I expect a high-scoring affair due to the jazz's struggles and the Rockets' explosive offense. Bailey's increased minutes and the Rockets' fast-paced play style are significant factors that support him exceeding 24.5 combined points and assists. The Net EV of 0.25 indicates the market likely undervalues Bailey's role in this matchup, making this a compelling bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 1.6 assists per game over his last five games, which indicates he's involved in playmaking and has potential to exceed 9.5 combined points and assists if he sees an increase in minutes.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets allow a high number of assists per game due to their fast pace and offensive style, which creates opportunities for opposing players to contribute more in assists, favoring Bailey's chances to hit the over.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of -13.5 in favor of the Rockets, this game is expected to be high-scoring, which typically results in more possessions and thus higher potential assist numbers for players like Bailey.
- →TREND: Recent performance shows a clear upward trend for Bailey, as he has consistently played more minutes, with average playing time around 30 minutes in his last five games, which correlates with increased opportunities for points and assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are struggling with a record of 18-39 and are on a two-game losing streak, indicating they may struggle to keep pace, resulting in more trailing situations which typically increase the number of assists by the trailing team.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged only 1.6 assists per game over the last five games, which is significantly below the 9.5 threshold. With such a low average, it would require an extraordinary performance for him to exceed that total.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently the 4th seed in the Western Conference and are likely to apply defensive pressure on the perimeter including Ace Bailey, which could limit his assist opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: The game spread indicates a potential blowout with the Rockets favored by 13.5 points. If the game becomes lopsided, Bailey may not play enough minutes to accumulate the necessary assists to exceed 9.5.
- →TREND: In his recent performances against the Jazz, Bailey has recorded 1 assist in the last matchup; this shows a pattern of underperformance in a familiar context against this particular opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are struggling, with a recent record of 2 wins and 3 losses and sitting at 18-39. The negativity surrounding the team could contribute to poor performance by Bailey, affecting his playmaking ability.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 1.6 assists per game over his last five games, which indicates he's involved in playmaking and has potential to exceed 9.5 combined points and assists if he sees an increase in minutes.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets allow a high number of assists per game due to their fast pace and offensive style, which creates opportunities for opposing players to contribute more in assists, favoring Bailey's chances to hit the over.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of -13.5 in favor of the Rockets, this game is expected to be high-scoring, which typically results in more possessions and thus higher potential assist numbers for players like Bailey.
- →TREND: Recent performance shows a clear upward trend for Bailey, as he has consistently played more minutes, with average playing time around 30 minutes in his last five games, which correlates with increased opportunities for points and assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are struggling with a record of 18-39 and are on a two-game losing streak, indicating they may struggle to keep pace, resulting in more trailing situations which typically increase the number of assists by the trailing team.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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