Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr Over 24.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+511↓135%|+1971
player points assists alternate
Jabari Smith Jr Over 24.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+511↓135%|+1971
player points assists alternate
63.00
Composite Score
+35.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In what is expected to be a high-scoring game favoring the Houston Rockets, Jabari Smith Jr. has a strong chance to exceed 24.5 combined points and assists, supported by his 18.0 points per game average and the Utah Jazz's struggles defensively against forwards. The urgency for the Rockets to bounce back after a loss further suggests increased usage and minutes for Smith, making this wager sensible. The Net EV of 0.35 indicates the bet is underpriced based on the current market, highlighting a favorable outlook for this wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 3.0 assists over the last five games, significantly surpassing the 9.5 points assists alternate if he maintains this performance level, indicating his growing contribution in playmaking.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have struggled defensively, particularly against forwards, which should create opportunities for Smith to both score and assist, enhancing his chances to exceed 9.5 points assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With a spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, leading to more possessions where Smith can accumulate both points and assists, thereby increasing the likelihood of exceeding the threshold.
- →TREND: Recently, Jabari Smith Jr. has scored an impressive 18.0 points per game and has found success contributing to assists, indicating a solid upward trend in his overall offensive role during games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are currently positioned well in the playoff race but are coming off a loss, which creates a sense of urgency to bounce back effectively against a lower-seeded Utah Jazz team, likely leading to increased minutes and usage for Smith.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged only 3.0 assists over his last five games, which is significantly lower than the 9.5 points and assists combined threshold, indicating he struggles to reach those totals.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz rank among the top teams in limiting assists, making it difficult for Smith to accumulate assists against a defense designed to disrupt playmaking.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread indicates a likely blowout with the Rockets favored by 13.5 points, if Houston establishes a lead, Jabari’s minutes may be limited, further hurting his chances of exceeding the point + assist total.
- →TREND: In recent games, Smith's role has been more focused on scoring (18.0 points per game) rather than playmaking, as evidenced by his consistent low assist averages, indicating underperformance in the assists category.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets' playoff contention (currently 4th seed) likely leads to prioritizing other players for ball-handling and scoring responsibilities as they manage their game strategies, which could limit Jabari's opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 3.0 assists over the last five games, significantly surpassing the 9.5 points assists alternate if he maintains this performance level, indicating his growing contribution in playmaking.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have struggled defensively, particularly against forwards, which should create opportunities for Smith to both score and assist, enhancing his chances to exceed 9.5 points assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With a spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, leading to more possessions where Smith can accumulate both points and assists, thereby increasing the likelihood of exceeding the threshold.
- →TREND: Recently, Jabari Smith Jr. has scored an impressive 18.0 points per game and has found success contributing to assists, indicating a solid upward trend in his overall offensive role during games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are currently positioned well in the playoff race but are coming off a loss, which creates a sense of urgency to bounce back effectively against a lower-seeded Utah Jazz team, likely leading to increased minutes and usage for Smith.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
Related Wagers
Amen Thompson Over 34.5 points assists alternate💤
+940+36.5% EV
Alperen Sengun Over 39.5 points assists alternate💤
+870+33.5% EV
Reed Sheppard Over 24.5 points assists alternate🚀
+518+33.0% EV
Cody Williams Over 14.5 points assists alternate💤
+820+32.5% EV
Kyle Filipowski Over 24.5 points assists alternate🚀
+592+32.4% EV
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available