Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Cody Williams Over 14.5 points assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+820↓242%|+1399
player points assists alternate
Cody Williams Over 14.5 points assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+820↓242%|+1399
player points assists alternate
63.70
Composite Score
+32.5%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The likely game script indicates a high-scoring matchup between the Jazz and Rockets, with the total set at 228.5 points, suggesting plenty of opportunities for offensive production. Cody Williams is expected to see increased court time as the Rockets look to rediscover their scoring touch, potentially allowing him to exceed the threshold of 14.5 points and assists given Utah's weak defensive metrics. The Net EV of 0.33 confirms this angle as it indicates the market may be underestimating Williams' ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities in a game anticipated to be fast-paced and high-scoring.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 83%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams is averaging 1.0 assists per game over his last five games, with a notable performance against the Utah Jazz where he played 22 minutes, indicating that he can contribute assists when given enough time on the court.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, suggesting they will play aggressively, which often leads to higher assist opportunities for players like Williams if he finds the right positioning on the floor.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 228.5 points indicates expectations for a high-scoring affair, which supports the view that Williams will have increased chances to contribute assists in a fast-paced game.
- →TREND: Despite a recent lower average of 3.0 points and 1.0 assists per game, Williams has shown the ability to surpass heavy thresholds when engaged, especially in favorable matchups, as seen in prior games against teams with weaker defensive units.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the Rockets have been struggling recently, they are likely to lean on their star players and secondary options to get back on track, which could mean increased minutes for Williams and more opportunities to exceed his assists number.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams averages just 1.0 assists per game over the last five games, which is significantly below the required threshold of 4.5 assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a strong defensive team, currently positioned at #4 in the Western Conference and known to limit opponents' assists, making it difficult for players like Williams to accumulate assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the projected large spread of -13.5 for the Rockets, there's a high likelihood that Williams' minutes could be limited in a potential blowout scenario, which negatively impacts his chances to exceed 4.5 assists.
- →TREND: Williams has recorded only one game with more than 4 assists all season, indicating a trend of low assist output and suggesting he is unlikely to produce at a higher level in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game context of a low total of 228.5 points indicates a potential for a slower pace, further reducing the number of possessions and opportunities for Williams to exceed the 4.5 assists mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 83%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams is averaging 1.0 assists per game over his last five games, with a notable performance against the Utah Jazz where he played 22 minutes, indicating that he can contribute assists when given enough time on the court.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, suggesting they will play aggressively, which often leads to higher assist opportunities for players like Williams if he finds the right positioning on the floor.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 228.5 points indicates expectations for a high-scoring affair, which supports the view that Williams will have increased chances to contribute assists in a fast-paced game.
- →TREND: Despite a recent lower average of 3.0 points and 1.0 assists per game, Williams has shown the ability to surpass heavy thresholds when engaged, especially in favorable matchups, as seen in prior games against teams with weaker defensive units.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the Rockets have been struggling recently, they are likely to lean on their star players and secondary options to get back on track, which could mean increased minutes for Williams and more opportunities to exceed his assists number.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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