Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Over 34.5 points assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+940↓170%|+2280
player points assists alternate
Amen Thompson Over 34.5 points assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+940↓170%|+2280
player points assists alternate
63.00
Composite Score
+36.5%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This bet on Amen Thompson Over 34.5 points and assists is strong given the expected high-scoring game between the Rockets and Jazz, indicated by the 228.5 total and the Rockets' fast pace. Thompson's recent performance, averaging 16.0 points and 6.0 assists, suggests he has the potential to exceed this combined total, especially as the Rockets aim to dominate a struggling Jazz team. The Net EV of 0.36 reflects a favorable edge that highlights the undervaluation of Thompson’s capabilities in this context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 16.0 points and 6.0 assists over his last 5 games, which strongly indicates his combined output will surpass the 14.5 mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets' fast-paced style of play, coupled with a high total of 228.5 for this game, should provide additional scoring opportunities for Thompson, capitalizing on the Jazz's current struggles defensively.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, this could lead to them maintaining a significant lead, allowing Thompson to continue to play aggressive offensively, thus increasing his likelihood of exceeding the 14.5 threshold.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Thompson has demonstrated a consistent increase in scoring, peaking at 16 points while distributing the ball effectively, fostering an environment conducive to achieving his points and assists goals.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz's recent record of 18-39 highlights their struggles, likely resulting in a game that requires Thompson to step up for the Rockets, especially as they aim to recover from a recent loss and solidify their playoff position.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's assists average of 6.0 over the last 5 games is well below the 14.5 point assist threshold, indicating a significant gap to exceed this mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong defensive unit, particularly in limiting assists, which will reduce Thompson's opportunities to distribute the ball effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: With a large spread of -13.5 in favor of the Rockets, it is likely that there will be limited competitiveness in the game, reducing the need for Thompson to play extended minutes and therefore limiting his stats.
- →TREND: In recent games, Thompson has not played more than 44 minutes, casting doubt on his ability to surpass the 14.5 points assists mark, especially considering he typically averages around 6.0 assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and may amp up their defensive intensity in this game, further complicating Thompson's chances of achieving high assists due to increased pressure on the ball.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 16.0 points and 6.0 assists over his last 5 games, which strongly indicates his combined output will surpass the 14.5 mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets' fast-paced style of play, coupled with a high total of 228.5 for this game, should provide additional scoring opportunities for Thompson, capitalizing on the Jazz's current struggles defensively.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, this could lead to them maintaining a significant lead, allowing Thompson to continue to play aggressive offensively, thus increasing his likelihood of exceeding the 14.5 threshold.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Thompson has demonstrated a consistent increase in scoring, peaking at 16 points while distributing the ball effectively, fostering an environment conducive to achieving his points and assists goals.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz's recent record of 18-39 highlights their struggles, likely resulting in a game that requires Thompson to step up for the Rockets, especially as they aim to recover from a recent loss and solidify their playoff position.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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