Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Over 29.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+430↓131%|+1830
player points assists alternate
Amen Thompson Over 29.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+430↓131%|+1830
player points assists alternate
60.90
Composite Score
+26.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
82.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
I recommend betting on Amen Thompson to go Over 29.5 points and assists. The matchup against the Utah Jazz, who allow a high number of points, sets the stage for a high-paced game where Thompson can maximize his scoring and playmaking opportunities. Given his recent uptick in production and the favorable narrative of Houston being heavily favored, the Net EV of 0.27 indicates the bet is underpriced, presenting a strong opportunity for value.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 16.0 points and 6.0 assists over his last 5 games, directly indicating he can achieve the combined total that exceeds 14.5 points and assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, who have struggled defensively with a bottom-tier ranking in opponent points allowed, creating an advantageous scenario for Thompson to perform well.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the current game script where Houston is favorited by a significant spread of -13.5, this suggests a high-paced game which can lead to more scoring opportunities for Thompson.
- →TREND: Amen Thompson's recent performance trend shows an uptick in points and assists averaging well over the needed threshold, particularly highlighted by an average of 22 points in games where he plays over 38 minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz are on a two-game losing streak and struggling this season (18-39), which may lead to a more free-flowing game as they try to catch up, allowing Thompson to exceed his combined total.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://stathead.com, https://nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's current assists per game average is 6.0, which is significantly below the threshold of 14.5 when combined with his points total, indicating that achieving over 14.5 in that combined category is unlikely given his assists average.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are ranked in the lower tier defensively, but they tend to contain scoring opportunities from players not named 'Jalen Green,' which could limit Thompson's overall contributions, especially in assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given Houston's 13.5 point spread, it's probable that the game could become a blowout. If that happens, Thompson's playing time could be drastically reduced as starters are often pulled early in games dominated by one team.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Thompson's point average is 16.0, but he only reached double digits in assists once. This trend suggests he might not be involved enough in playmaking to combine for the required 14.5 points and assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are on a one-game losing streak, and with pressure to perform in their home game, this could lead to over-reliance on their star players, reducing the ball distribution and thereby limiting Thompson's assist opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 16.0 points and 6.0 assists over his last 5 games, directly indicating he can achieve the combined total that exceeds 14.5 points and assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, who have struggled defensively with a bottom-tier ranking in opponent points allowed, creating an advantageous scenario for Thompson to perform well.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the current game script where Houston is favorited by a significant spread of -13.5, this suggests a high-paced game which can lead to more scoring opportunities for Thompson.
- →TREND: Amen Thompson's recent performance trend shows an uptick in points and assists averaging well over the needed threshold, particularly highlighted by an average of 22 points in games where he plays over 38 minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz are on a two-game losing streak and struggling this season (18-39), which may lead to a more free-flowing game as they try to catch up, allowing Thompson to exceed his combined total.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://stathead.com, https://nba.com
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