Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Kyle Filipowski Over 20.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+270↓149%|+820
player points assists alternate
Kyle Filipowski Over 20.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+270↓149%|+820
player points assists alternate
60.10
Composite Score
+21.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the expected high-scoring nature of the game between the Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets, Kyle Filipowski's Over 20.5 points and assists is a sound wager. The Rockets' fast pace and Filipowski's ability to score prominently—recently averaging over 12 points in games along with favorable narratives of increased minutes due to the game's stakes—suggest he will have ample opportunities to exceed this total. The positive Net EV of 0.21 reflects the underestimation by the bookmaker of Filipowski’s scoring potential in a high-pressure matchup.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has averaged 12.8 points over the last 5 games, well above the threshold of 9.5 points, indicating strong scoring capability.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are 34-21, and their recent performance suggests they play at a higher pace, which statistically favors increased scoring opportunities for opponents like Filipowski.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of -13.5, it is expected that the game will feature increased scoring, which often leads to higher individual stats for players on both sides, including Filipowski.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Filipowski has scored more than 9.5 points in 4 games, showcasing a recent upward trend in his scoring ability.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets' position as a playoff contender and their urgency to win after a recent loss could lead to higher minutes for Filipowski as teams often maximize player usage in crucial games.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski is averaging only 1.4 assists per game over his last five games, which is significantly below the 9.5 needed to exceed this threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are known for their strong defensive performance, making it harder for opposing players like Filipowski to accumulate high assist totals.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread (Houston Rockets -13.5), it's likely this game will be a blowout, reducing Filipowski's minutes and opportunities to rack up assists.
- →TREND: Filipowski has not recorded more than 2 assists in any of his last five games, indicating a consistent pattern of underperformance in this category.
- →SITUATIONAL: Both teams' performance indicates that the Rockets' strong playoff position may result in tactical load management for their stars, leading to a trended tempo that could limit opportunities for Filipowski.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has averaged 12.8 points over the last 5 games, well above the threshold of 9.5 points, indicating strong scoring capability.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are 34-21, and their recent performance suggests they play at a higher pace, which statistically favors increased scoring opportunities for opponents like Filipowski.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of -13.5, it is expected that the game will feature increased scoring, which often leads to higher individual stats for players on both sides, including Filipowski.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Filipowski has scored more than 9.5 points in 4 games, showcasing a recent upward trend in his scoring ability.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets' position as a playoff contender and their urgency to win after a recent loss could lead to higher minutes for Filipowski as teams often maximize player usage in crucial games.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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