Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Brice Sensabaugh Under 13.5 points
💤 Noise Bet
-118↑16%|-16
player points
Brice Sensabaugh Under 13.5 points
💤 Noise Bet
-118↑16%|-16
player points
30.80
Composite Score
+3.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
15.30
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the current matchup between the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets, I expect a strong defensive display from the Rockets, given their official defensive ranking and motivations for playoff positioning. Sensabaugh's recent performance, averaging only 6.6 points over the last five games, along with the narrative suggesting a potential blowout that could limit his playing time and scoring opportunities, support the Under on his points. The slight positive EV of 0.03 doesn’t provide enough confidence to make this a strong or moderate bet, as the balance of evidence leans towards him not exceeding 13.5 points.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brice Sensabaugh has averaged only 6.6 points over the last five games, significantly under the threshold of 13.5 points, indicating a considerable gap in scoring ability at this moment.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a strong defensive team ranked among the top in points allowed, which poses a challenge for Sensabaugh to score effectively against their defense.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread indicating a large favor towards the Rockets, the game script may lead to a blowout situation, limiting Sensabaugh's minutes and opportunities to score as starters may be pulled early.
- →TREND: Sensabaugh's recent performance shows a worrying trend, where he has not exceeded 10 points in any of his last five games, further suggesting he is unlikely to break through the 13.5 point mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the Rockets are coming off a loss and competing for playoff positioning, they are likely to come out strong defensively, which could stifle Sensabaugh's scoring opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brice Sensabaugh has a solid field goal percentage of 45.9%, which indicates efficiency in scoring opportunities, and he is averaging 10.9 points per game this season, showing he can score consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz's poor defense, highlighted by their record (18-39), makes for a favorable matchup for Sensabaugh, especially when considering the Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, indicating a potentially high-scoring game.
- →NARRATIVE: With a game total of 228.5, this indicates a high-paced and high-scoring expectation for the game, which supports the likelihood of Sensabaugh exceeding 13.5 points as the Rockets are likely to score heavily.
- →TREND: In his last 5 games, Sensabaugh has averaged 6.6 points, but with increased minutes in games where he plays over 20 minutes, he has the potential to significantly increase his scoring output, particularly in a fast-paced game context.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are currently positioned for a playoff run as the 4th seed, which elevates the game's stakes, likely resulting in the starters, including Sensabaugh, receiving maximum minutes and opportunities to score.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brice Sensabaugh has averaged only 6.6 points over the last five games, significantly under the threshold of 13.5 points, indicating a considerable gap in scoring ability at this moment.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a strong defensive team ranked among the top in points allowed, which poses a challenge for Sensabaugh to score effectively against their defense.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread indicating a large favor towards the Rockets, the game script may lead to a blowout situation, limiting Sensabaugh's minutes and opportunities to score as starters may be pulled early.
- →TREND: Sensabaugh's recent performance shows a worrying trend, where he has not exceeded 10 points in any of his last five games, further suggesting he is unlikely to break through the 13.5 point mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the Rockets are coming off a loss and competing for playoff positioning, they are likely to come out strong defensively, which could stifle Sensabaugh's scoring opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available