Tari Eason Under 13.5 points

🎯 Core Value Bet

+100— stable

player points

Tari Eason Under 13.5 points

🎯 Core Value Bet

+100— stable

player points

35.50

Composite Score

+5.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

27.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Tari Eason UNDER 13.5 points aligns with the narrative of a likely blowout where the Rockets, heavily favored, may control the game pace and limit Eason's minutes. Factors such as Eason’s recent inconsistency in scoring and the potential for reduced opportunities in a dominating effort by Houston further support this wager. The Net EV of 0.05 signals a slight edge indicating market mispricing, making this a reasonable approach given the circumstances.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Tari Eason's recent performance shows he has averaged only 13.4 points in his last five games, which is just under the threshold of 13.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored in this matchup with a spread of -13.5, indicating a potential blowout scenario where Eason's minutes could be limited if the game is out of reach.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high spread and the expectation for a large margin, game script may dictate fewer scoring opportunities for Eason as the Rockets could utilize a slower pace in a dominating effort.
→TREND: Eason's trend shows inconsistency in scoring; he recently scored single-digit points in one of his last games against the Rockets, indicating potential struggles against this specific opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets on a loss streak and facing a struggling Utah team, there might be a focus on ball distribution among other scorers, which could reduce Eason's scoring opportunities further.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Tari Eason has averaged 13.4 points over the last five games, coming very close to the 13.5 threshold, indicating he's capable of scoring in that range consistently.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, a team currently ranking low in defensive efficiency, which will give Eason more opportunities to score.
→NARRATIVE: With the Rockets favored by 13.5 points, a strong offensive showing is expected, allowing Eason more scoring chances throughout the game.
→TREND: Eason has been increasing his scoring output, recently registering 13 points or more in three of the last five games, showing a positive upward trend in performance.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are in need of a bounce-back performance after a recent loss, likely leading to higher minutes and more involvement for Eason, especially with their recent inconsistency ensuring competitive play.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Tari Eason's recent performance shows he has averaged only 13.4 points in his last five games, which is just under the threshold of 13.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored in this matchup with a spread of -13.5, indicating a potential blowout scenario where Eason's minutes could be limited if the game is out of reach.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high spread and the expectation for a large margin, game script may dictate fewer scoring opportunities for Eason as the Rockets could utilize a slower pace in a dominating effort.
→TREND: Eason's trend shows inconsistency in scoring; he recently scored single-digit points in one of his last games against the Rockets, indicating potential struggles against this specific opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets on a loss streak and facing a struggling Utah team, there might be a focus on ball distribution among other scorers, which could reduce Eason's scoring opportunities further.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com