Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Alperen Sengun Over 35.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+470↓139%|+1670
player points assists alternate
Alperen Sengun Over 35.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+470↓139%|+1670
player points assists alternate
63.20
Composite Score
+27.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
90.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the expectation of a high-scoring game with the Houston Rockets favored by 13.5 points, Alperen Sengun is likely to play a significant role in the offense. He has averaged 23.2 points and 6.4 assists over his last five games, indicating he is consistently exceeding the 35.5 combined points and assists threshold. The Net EV of 0.27 suggests that the bookmakers may not have fully accounted for Sengun’s recent form and the overall game context, supporting the value in this wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Alperen Sengun is averaging 23.2 points over his last five games, which places him well above the 18.5 points threshold combined with his assists average of 6.4, suggesting he is consistently exceeding this mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points against the Utah Jazz, indicating an expected high-scoring game where Sengun will likely play a large role in the offense due to the heavy minutes he is expected to receive in a competitive context.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread, the game script suggests that Houston will aim to establish and maintain an early lead, which often allows Sengun to focus on scoring, particularly against a struggling Utah defense.
- →TREND: Sengun's recent performance shows a significant uptick in points scored, where he has averaged 23.2 points across his last five games and is trending upwards at a time where he is getting considerable playing time around 34 minutes per game.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets have a strong home record, and they are playing against a team like the Utah Jazz who are underwhelming this season, potentially allowing Sengun to thrive with momentum on his side and minimal defensive pressure.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Alperen Sengun's recent performance shows he has been scoring 23.2 points per game, but this includes a high number of shots which may not sustain against a strong defensive team like the Jazz.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have a solid defensive rating, which could limit Sengun's ability to score and assist effectively, especially given their recent games where they held opponents under average scoring.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread at Houston Rockets -13.5, there is a high chance that this game could become a blowout, leading to Sengun being pulled early in the second half and limiting his overall minutes and opportunities to exceed the point and assist threshold.
- →TREND: Despite performing well recently, Sengun's assists per game, averaging 6.4, may not be enough against a Jazz defense that has been effective at limiting playmaking from his position.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and may face added pressure to perform, which could lead to a more conservative offensive strategy that does not rely on Sengun to exceed high thresholds and could impact his overall contributions.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Alperen Sengun is averaging 23.2 points over his last five games, which places him well above the 18.5 points threshold combined with his assists average of 6.4, suggesting he is consistently exceeding this mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points against the Utah Jazz, indicating an expected high-scoring game where Sengun will likely play a large role in the offense due to the heavy minutes he is expected to receive in a competitive context.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread, the game script suggests that Houston will aim to establish and maintain an early lead, which often allows Sengun to focus on scoring, particularly against a struggling Utah defense.
- →TREND: Sengun's recent performance shows a significant uptick in points scored, where he has averaged 23.2 points across his last five games and is trending upwards at a time where he is getting considerable playing time around 34 minutes per game.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets have a strong home record, and they are playing against a team like the Utah Jazz who are underwhelming this season, potentially allowing Sengun to thrive with momentum on his side and minimal defensive pressure.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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