Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Kyle Filipowski Over 24.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+592↓200%|+1184
player points assists alternate
Kyle Filipowski Over 24.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+592↓200%|+1184
player points assists alternate
63.70
Composite Score
+32.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, the game script favors a high-scoring affair, underscored by a total of 228.5, which suggests plenty of offensive opportunities. Filipowski's good performance against a weak Jazz defense and consistent scoring of over 10 points in past matchups align well with expectations for him to exceed the line of 24.5 points and assists. The positive Net EV of 0.32 indicates that this wager is underpriced by the bookmaker and offers solid value given the factors at play.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski is averaging 12.8 points over the last 5 games, indicating he's above the 9.5 points mark needed for this outcome.
- →MATCHUP: Facing the Utah Jazz, who have a weak defensive rating, should provide ample opportunities for Filipowski to score effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 228.5, a fast-paced game suggests more opportunities for scoring, which increases the likelihood of Filipowski exceeding the points threshold.
- →TREND: In his last five games against the Jazz, Filipowski has demonstrated reliability by scoring no fewer than 10 points on multiple occasions, providing evidence of his scoring ability against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are 13.5-point favorites, indicating a strong chance for a competitive game where Filipowski's playing time could be sustained, ensuring he gets enough minutes to score above 9.5 points.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski averages only 1.4 assists per game over the last 5 games, which is significantly below the 9.5 threshold, indicating a severe lack of playmaking and distribution potential.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, ranked 4th in their division, present a tough defensive front that could limit Filipowski’s scoring opportunities and passing lanes, hindering his ability to reach the required points and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 13.5 in favor of the Rockets, the game script could lead to a blowout, causing Filipowski to play fewer minutes and thus potentially not accumulate the necessary stats.
- →TREND: Filipowski has only surpassed 9.5 assists in one game this season, highlighting his struggle to contribute significantly in this category and reflecting a consistent underperformance in assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game is positioned against Utah's current losing streak (2 games), which may lead to diminished confidence and performance from Filipowski, further limiting his contributions on the court.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski is averaging 12.8 points over the last 5 games, indicating he's above the 9.5 points mark needed for this outcome.
- →MATCHUP: Facing the Utah Jazz, who have a weak defensive rating, should provide ample opportunities for Filipowski to score effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 228.5, a fast-paced game suggests more opportunities for scoring, which increases the likelihood of Filipowski exceeding the points threshold.
- →TREND: In his last five games against the Jazz, Filipowski has demonstrated reliability by scoring no fewer than 10 points on multiple occasions, providing evidence of his scoring ability against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are 13.5-point favorites, indicating a strong chance for a competitive game where Filipowski's playing time could be sustained, ensuring he gets enough minutes to score above 9.5 points.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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